The story of this year isn't really that Maryland is likely to miss the NIT for the 3rd time in 4 seasons, or that this team might be the first in over 20 years not to finish over .500. No, the story is rapidly turning into a "what could have been" season. The latest heartbreaker to add to the collection was a double OT loss at Clemson. There's no shame in that, but when added to last possession losses to UConn and George Washington early, plus Duke and Syracuse in conference play, it's tough to swallow. You can even add in the game against UVA down in Charlottesville where the Terrapins had an honest shot to win or force OT late in the game.
Regardless of all that, it's now clear that the Terps will miss the NCAA Tournament for the third time in Mark Turgeon's three seasons at the helm. The reasons for that can be debated until next season starts and beyond, but the fact remains - no tournaments. So the question is, given a coach missing the tournament in his first three seasons at a power conference school, what does his future typically look like.
Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams back in 1985, 83 coaches fall into that group, including Turgeon. Depending how this seasons ends, a couple of Turgeon's class of 2011 peers - Ed Cooley, Cuonzo Martin, Mike Anderson - could also join this list.
The first thing to notice is that in terms of WP%, Turgeon is at the top of this peer group:
| Andy Kennedy | MISS | 0.610 |
| Doc Sadler | NEB | 0.579 |
| Mark Turgeon | MD | 0.576 |
| Jim Boylen | UTAH | 0.571 |
| Mark Gottfried | BAMA | 0.567 |
It's not an encouraging peer group, however. Sadler never made a tournament, Kennedy made just the one last year with Marshall Henderson, and Jim Boylen got just one more (poor year at Utah). Gottfried's overall record isn't terrible, but I doubt that's a comparison many Terps' fans want to make, especially with NC State trending down in years 2 and 3.
Realistically, the expectations for Turgeon coming in - right or wrong - were Final Fours at some point. Four of the coaches in the group of 83 actually would go on to take that program to the Final Four. The most prominent of those was Gary Williams. The situation was obviously much different back then with a postseason/TV ban hitting as part of the school's probation, but Gary took until year 6 to even make the tournament. Lon Kruger took Florida to the Final Four in season 4, following that up with a .500 record in his final two seasons before taking the Illinois job. Richard Williams took Mississippi State to the Final Four in his 10th season at the helm. In 12 years in Starkville he made just three tournaments overall.
The best hope in these comparisons is probably Jay Wright. Like Turgeon, Wright took over a National Championship program that had faltered, mixing good and bad seasons in the years before his arrival. Wright made the NIT his first three seasons in Philly, but his second and third resulted in a combined .500 overall record. Most disappointing was probably his third season. Again, like Turgeon, Wright had laid the foundation for success by improving the overall talent level of the program. The top five scorers were from a rather famous sophomore class that would go on to lead Villanova to new heights in their final two seasons - Allan Ray, Randy Foye, Mike Nardi, Curtis Sumpter, and Jason Fraser. While 'Nova hasn't always been among the top 10 in the country as they were by those players' senior years, this will make their 9th tournament appearance in 10 years since then under Wright.
Who had the most success overall at that school after their first three years? Here's the top 10 percent based on future wins:
| COACH | SCHOOL | AFTER WIN |
| Gary Williams | MD | 412 |
| Kevin Stallings | VANDY | 241 |
| Rick Stansbury | MISS ST | 241 |
| Jay Wright | NOVA | 230 |
| Al Skinner | BC | 215 |
| Danny Nee | NEB | 203 |
| Leonard Hamilton | FSU | 190 |
| Scott Drew | BAY | 177 |
Once again Gary ranks at the top of the list by far. Kevin Stallings and Rick Stansbury built a couple of solid SEC programs with Stallings reaching a pair of Sweet 16s so far and Stansbury winning 5 division titles in the usually-weaker SEC West. Leonard Hamilton has recruited well, puts together a premier defensive team most years, and won an ACC Championship a couple years back. Skinner mined relatively under-the-radar gems (Tyrese Rice, Craig Smith, and Jared Dudley) for years. Scott Drew has done a masterful job turning around Baylor after years of terrible basketball and scandal, coming close to a Final Four multiple times, even if his peers do claim he doesn't do it the right way.
The peer group had an average (not games-weighted) winning percentage of .455 in their first three years, and a .509 winning percentage (again, average) thereafter. I used the average WP across the group so as not to bias the "after" number too high since the worse coaches would typically contribute fewer future years to the sample. Again Turgeon ranks at the top of the first three years group, but we'd probably want to look at a more advanced metric (kenpom, or at least RPI) to make that specific a comparison.
This group lasted about 4 years (average: 3.8) after missing the tournament the next three years. Can Turgeon rise to the top of this group in the coming years? The initial results and the recruiting trend say yes, but there's a lot of history that says that missing the tournament three straight seasons to start your tenure doesn't portend good things.
No comments:
Post a Comment