Saturday, January 24, 2015

2015 Coaching Hot Takes - Part 3

60. Frank Martin, South Carolina (28-22-210-114-58): Martin was successful at Kansas State.  Martin may well have success at South Carolina -- they've already taken great strides during his two and a half years in Columbia. But Martin is also crazy.  Scary crazy, not "Grampa Simpsons says wacky things crazy".  I guess Bob Knight was crazy, but that was a different time.  If we saw videos of South Carolina practices, would they make Mike Rice looking like he was leisurely coaching a CYO team?

59. Matt Painter, Purdue (10-28-61-97-74): Starting in his second year as the Boilers' head coach, Painter's teams went to six straight NCAA tournaments, peaking with a #3 seed in 2011.  Now the Boilers are faced with a third straight season of no dancing.  What happened?  Painter's strong 2007 recruiting class (E'twaun Moore, Jajuan Johnson, and Robbie Hummel) led the team for years but Painter hasn't added a single true impact player since then.  Swinging and missing for two full recruiting cycles is a bad look.

58. Lorenzo Romar, Washington (20-57-76-95-59): Romar is somehow in his 13th season in Seattle.  In that time he's coached 13 NBA players but won just 8 NCAA tournament games.  Romar had the Nate Robinson-led 2005 team that also included Brandon Roy and was a #1 seed in the Dance before getting toppled in the Sweet 16.  Much like Painter above, Romar had early success at his alma mater before falling on hard times more recently.  Washington was on top of the Pac-12 as recently as 2012, but they've been a .500 team ever since, despite having the talent to do more.

57. Mike Anderson, Arkansas (48-132-79-52-44): Anderson at least has a distinctive philosophy, running the frenetic, pressing, up-tempo Forty Minutes of Hell style that his mentor Nolan Richardson used to great effect once upon a time at Arkansas.  So that's something, and now Anderson only has to translate that to great success. Anderson made six NCAA tournaments at UAB and Missouri, and Arkansas has shown steady improvement in Anderson's four years, but a fourth year guy looking at a 7-10 seed (maybe) doesn't inspire.

56. John Groce, Illinois (143-51-39-49-66):  Illinois got hit with the injury bug a couple times this year so we lose a data point on Groce.  He's recruiting well, though Illinois continued to finish out of the money for the top prospects in-state the past two cycles which will bear watching going forward.  Out of the 18 current NBA players born in Illinois, not a single one played for the Fighting Illini.  The lack of local recruiting is one of the things that did in Bruce Weber before he jumped to K-State.

55. Eddie Jordan, Rutgers (166-168): The good: a long NBA career and an extensive NBA coaching resume, including a fairly successful stint with the Wizards.  The bad: Jordan was last in the college game in 1991 as a Rutgers assistant.  All this makes him something of a poor man's Larry Brown.  He's managed to beat a top 5 team and land a top 100 recruit already, both minor miracles at RU.  Check back in two years.

54. Chris Collins, Northwestern (131-132):  The first Coach K disciple on the list, a group which has been much more average than the man with 1,000 wins.  Collins has the pedigree not only from Coach K but also from father Doug.  It's far too early to tell with Collins, but even a single NCAA tournament appearance at Northwestern will have him shooting up the list.  My guess is that we'll here predictions of just that for the next three years.

53. Mark Gottfried, North Carolina State (96-44-34-55-42): Gottfried generally has recruited well and made the NCAA tournament.  When you look at his coaching profile, though, it becomes immediately clear that he has no ability to coach a passable defensive team.  Not since way back in 2003 at Alabama has Gottfried coached a defense that ranked even in the top 75 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency.  You can't win a championship or even really compete for one when you're hapless on one side of the ball.

52. Travis Ford, Oklahoma State (73-92-22-26-30): Ford's ranking is definitely colored by last year's Cowboys' team that featured lottery pick/All-America candidate Marcus Smart that fell from a preseason top 10 to an 8-10 Big XII record and a first round loss in March.  This year's version looks like another bubble team.  If they find themselves on the right side it would be a fifth tournament appearance in seven years in Stillwater for Ford; if not, could be a fourth losing conference record in five seasons.

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