Now that we're halfway through the season and entering the meat of the conference schedule, we can look back at the predictions that were made three months ago in preseason and tweak them, making new predictions which will probably look equally foolhardy. Then numbers are the preseason media poll and now are the ordinal rank in conference via KenPom. Let's go, shall we?
Rutgers (Then: 14, Now: 14) - The Scarlet Knights aren't very good. They did manage some incremental improvement. They went 2-2 against in-state foes rather than 0-3, and they've yet to lose to Louisville, or indeed anyone, by 61 points this year. The team simply has little talent, and it's not a surprise. They were a consensus pick for last in the preseason and that hasn't changed.
Northwestern (Then: 13, Now: 13) - OK, two in a row right? This is going to be a boring post. I swear I saw one blurb about the Wildcats finally breaking The Streak this year, but it's not happening. Chris Collins is upgrading the talent, but when your best win is Western Michigan and you've lost by double digits (at home, naturally) to Central Michigan, things are grim. Neither Chris Kaman nor Thunder Dan Majerle played in that CMU game from what I can glean from the box score.
Penn State (Then 12, Now 11) - Penn State started the year 12-1, and since it was a team that never has any expectations, it was easy to ignore that none of those wins were over teams that are particularly good or that they were almost all close home wins that could have gone the other way. Then they lost big at Wiscy, and hey, no shame there. But then they lost at Rutgers, and any hopes of making a run to the tournament ought to have died there. KenPom actually has them as a little worse than last year's sub .500 club, though if Brandon Taylor can provide a second offensive option behind star DJ Newbill an NIT is certainly within reach.
Purdue (Then 11, Now 9) - Purdue has had its share of exits, losses, and trouble since the Baby Boilers of Robbie Hummel and crew left campus, but there was some hope coming into the season. Kendall Stephens had a promising freshman season and AJ Hammons is a big, tall, seven-foot athlete who gets mentioned with the NBA prospect tag at times. Purdue lost to North Florida and Gardner-Webb, allowing them to make a combined 24-47 from deep, and that's been a problem all year at 39%. That will probably regress a bit as the year goes on and the Boilers have started 2-0 in conference so they may be a good bet to surprise.
Indiana (Then 10th, Now 7th) - Indiana was a program in disarray with suspensions and legal skirmishes before the season coming off the heels of a disappointing 2013-14 (which itself came off the heels of a disappointing 2013 tournament performance). The results haven't been disappointing necessarily, but it's a deeply flawed team that ranks outside the top 200 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Hoosiers put little pressure on the offense (319th in defensive turnover %) and rank 7th nationally in shots allowed at the rim. Indiana is young and smallish, without any rim protectors. Getting ripped by Louisville or Michigan State is forgivable, but giving up 88 in a loss to Eastern Washington isn't.
Minnesota (Then 9th, Now 5th) - Is this a point for the Gophers or a point against the depth of the league? They may be the biggest mystery in the league at this point given their weak non-conference schedule. They've started 0-2 in the league, but both were road games and their efficiency ranks in the top 50 on both sides of the ball. The Gophers have picked up their defense quite a bit from last year due to an increase in forced turnovers. Head Coach Richard Pitino's team is bettering his own father at Louisville and out Havoc-ing VCU at 3rd in the nation.
Maryland (Then 8th, Now 3rd) - This article was a little more fun in concept last night before the Terps dropped from second to third, one spot behind Michigan State. Despite five players transferring in the offseason, improvements from its returning players (Damonte Dodd), impact freshman (Melo Trimble) and contributing transfers (Richaud Pack) have raise the program back to the national eye. Dez Wells was last year's leading scorer but suffered a wrist injury and has yet to get his offensive game back on track. If he can do that, the Terps could be even more formidable.
Iowa (Then 7th, Now 5th) - Iowa may be the undervalued team in the B1G so far, having scored road wins over North Carolina and Ohio State but having also largely flown below the radar. Aaron White has been outstanding, and Jarrod Uthoff has taken on a much bigger offense role after Roy Devyn Marble's departure. Uthoff was previously most famous for the controversy surrounding his transfer from Wisconsin to Iowa a couple years ago, but he's scored 33 in his first two conference games this season.
Illinois (Then 6th, Now 8th) - The hope coming into the year was that transfers Aaron Cosby (Seton Hall) and Ahmad Starks (Oregon State) could provide veteran backcourt help to the nation's 177th ranked offense. That hasn't quite worked out as both have been relatively inefficient, but the offense has improved, particularly at putting the ball in the basket, due to increased contributions from Sophomores Kendrick Nunn and Malcolm Hill supporting Senior Rayvonte Rice. They'll need more help from the veterans, though. The Illini has dug itself an 0-2 hole in conference play and just lost Rice for at least the next month to a fractured wrist.
Nebraska (Then 5th, Now 12th) - Tim Miles did an outstanding job getting his Huskers to the NCAA Tournament for the first time in over a decade last year and expectations were high both internally and from pundits. Yet Nebraska is just 8-6 and looks a longshot for even an NIT bid. What happened? The offense has cratered. It was not strong last year, but stayed afloat by taking care of the ball despite not making shots or getting second opportunities on the offensive glass. Nebraska had everyone back from a good team, so it shouldn't shock anyone if they outpace their projections going forward, but the roster is mostly low ceiling players who maxed out last year so nothing will come easily even in a weakened B1G.
Michigan (Then 4th, Now 10th) - John Beilein has a reputation as a masterful game coach and developer of talent, but he had a staggering five NBA draft picks helping his team make deep tournament runs the past couple years. Now the talent simply isn't there, and while no one could have predicted losses to NJIT or Eastern Michigan, the roster doesn't look to have enough talent on paper to contend for conference or national honors again this season. Caris LeVert has done his part, leading the Wolverines in points, rebounds and assists, but he doesn't have help. Derrick Walton, a highly rated recruit who flourished last year when surrounded by talent, has been particularly ineffective shooting and taking care of the ball. Beilein's teams have never played much defense, so it's jarring to see that unit rank ahead of the offense for Michigan. The Wolverines have dropped to just 130th in the country offensively after leading the country in adjusted efficiency for two straight years.
Michigan State (Then 3rd, Now 2nd) - Tom Izzo has managed to lose five games, including one to Texas Southern of the SWAC, and still exceed expectations. That's probably being a little generous, but Izzo's team should not have much difficulty making an 18th straight appearance in March Madness. The Spartans haven't found a way to replace Adreian Payne and Gary Harris offensively, but the defense and rebounding are vintage Michigan State.
Ohio State (Then 2nd, Now 4th) - Do you believe that margin of victory matters? Ohio State played a weak non-conference schedule and lost both of its games to good teams (@ Louisville and vs. UNC). Its best wins are over Marquette and Illinois -- both at home. Yet it rates high in efficiency ratings due to winning games by lopsided scores like 100-55 (Wright State), 106-48 (Sacred Heart), and 97-43 (High Point). OSU has a deep stable of talent players, and the Bucks have performed well statistically in almost all areas this season. Thad Matta is using his bench more than any season since the Greg Oden 2007 team that played for a National Championship. De'Angelo Russell and Shannon Scott are the top talent the Buckeyes usually have, but contributions from reserves like Kam Williams, Trey McDonald and Anthony Lee will also be key if OSU is to advance to the tournament's second weekend for the fifth time in six seasons.
Wisconsin (Then 1st, Now 1st) - We often judge on small samples so it may be that Wisconsin's opportunity to be perceived among the true elites nationally was destroyed when it lost by double digits at home against Duke in the ACC-B1G challenge. The Badgers have tightened up the defense and look a good bet to enter this year's tournament with fewer losses than last year's seven and their first conference title since 2008. Wisconsin always reloads with Bo Ryan's type of player, but with three seniors and likely NBA draft pick Sam Dekker among the starters, this is the year for Wisconsin. One loss to Duke certainly doesn't change that.
No comments:
Post a Comment