Conference Title Hunting

Yesterday every Terps fan (or maybe just some of us) was doing mental gymnastics to parse all the scenarios that would get Maryland a top four seed and double bye in the Big Ten tournament in two weeks.  That was the big one, and it's not easy with a half dozen teams still fighting for three spots.  We were also hoping that Maryland would at least be competitive against #5 Wisconsin at the Xfinity Center.  It's not that a loss was a sure thing, but rather given the teams uneven performance in the last month, we might have settled for sweeping Michigan, Rutgers and Nebraska to finish the season.

But since the Terps decided to go ahead and set off a flash mob, pack the lower bowl with gold, storm the court, and oh yeah, win last night's game, a beautifully played 59-53 win over the heavily favored Badgers, we can at least peak at their prospects for nabbing a share of the conference regular season championship.  However faint those hopes are, they increased markedly last night, and given that we've shared just one regular season title since 2002, it's worth investigating.

As usual, we'll use kenpom's projections for each team's final three games.  The caveat is that you can make a very compelling argument that Pomeroy is too bearish on the Terps.  Despite a 23-5 record and a half dozen or more wins over likely NCAA Tournament teams, Maryland ranks just 35th in those rankings behind Ole Miss and Xavier and seemingly a cast of thousands.  His rankings are clearly an outlier among major computer rankings, but hey, no sense splitting hairs too much.

Anyway,KP give Maryland an overwhelming chance of beating Michigan (81%) and winning at Rutgers (80%), and puts them as a solid favorite in Lincoln (64%).  Here's the breakdown:

Maryland's Last Three games

Not bad.  Two wins clinches the bye, and speaking purely by the numbers, it would be a shocker if the Terps didn't get there.

Wisconsin's schedule was heavily backloaded, and their final three are much tougher.  They get Michigan State next for Senior Night, their only game against the Spartans, and then next week has two road trips, one to feisty rival Minnesota and the other to Ohio State, the only game between the preseason presumptive top two in the Big Ten.  Wisconsin still looks like a healthy favorite in the first two (82% and 75%), but the Ohio State game is much closer to a coin flip (54%).

Wisconsin's Last Three Games

Two wins clinches an outright B1G title for Wiscy, so you can probably already tell that Maryland isn't at even odds.  There are three scenarios that work for Maryland.  If the Terps sweep, Wisconsin can win either one more or none (for an unlikely outright B1G title) or if the Terps drop one than Wisconsin has to lose all three.  The realistic scenario is Maryland at 3-0 and Wisconsin at 1-2.

So yeah, put it all together and Maryland has a 9.25% chance to do it.  Let's say it's 1 in 10 and call it day.  Those certainly not great odds, but they also aren't zero, which is amazing to say on February 25.  It's safe to say that the preseason prediction of 10th in the Big Ten was a little off base.