Entering the Final Five

*Five points separated Maryland from two wins and two overtime games last week, but once again, luck - and those five points - were on the Terps side as they escaped with a two point home win over Indiana and a three point win at Penn State.  The performances continued to be uneven, but for resume, seeding, and conference standing purposes, it was an enormous week, no different than if the team had come out and ripped both teams.  The soft second-half conference continues, with only a home date against Wisconsin left as far as potential NCAA tournaments.

Wisconsin currently reigns over the B1G at 11-1, but a tough closing stretch (trips to Maryland and Ohio State, Michigan State at the Kohl Center, and a home and home against feisty Minnesota) give some measure of hope for someone - likely Maryland or Michigan State - to snare a piece of the conference championship.

The Terps would almost certainly need to sweep the final five games which is unlikely.  They'll be favored in four of those games, but are likely to be a healthy underdog to the Badgers, even at home.  A look at the most likely scenarios (percentages derived from current kenpom ratings):



There are theoretically 32 combinations of wins and losses left, and the clean sweep is the third most likely at 1-in-10, but still slightly less likely than losing the Wiscy game and adding a loss at Nebraska to close the season.  12 wins seems like the magic number for a bye in the B1G tournament, and the efficiency metrics have Maryland at over 80% to get there, including about 43% to take four or more.

*An interesting battle is shaping up for all-conference honors.  Frank Kaminsky and D'Angelo Russell are locks for the 1st Team, and I'd bet on D.J. Newbill despite Penn State finishing near the conference bottom.  That leaves two spots up for grabs from the group of Melo Trimble, Yogi Ferrell, Terran Pettway, Aaron White, and perhaps James Blackmon.

After a tough stretch, I'll bet on Melo here.  Trimble has 58 points in the past three games on outstanding shooting numbers: 17-30 from the floor, 5-9 from three, and 19-21 at the line.  Trimble still leads major conference players in FTM this year, by a fair bit:

1. Melo Trimble, MD - 157


2. Billy Garrett, Jr, DEP - 142


3. Aaron White, IOWA - 140


4. D'Angelo Harrison, SJU - 137


5. Le'Bryan Nash, OKST - 135