60. Frank Martin, South Carolina (28-22-210-114-58): Martin was successful at Kansas State. Martin may well have success at South Carolina -- they've already taken great strides during his two and a half years in Columbia. But Martin is also crazy. Scary crazy, not "Grampa Simpsons says wacky things crazy". I guess Bob Knight was crazy, but that was a different time. If we saw videos of South Carolina practices, would they make Mike Rice looking like he was leisurely coaching a CYO team?
59. Matt Painter, Purdue (10-28-61-97-74): Starting in his second year as the Boilers' head coach, Painter's teams went to six straight NCAA tournaments, peaking with a #3 seed in 2011. Now the Boilers are faced with a third straight season of no dancing. What happened? Painter's strong 2007 recruiting class (E'twaun Moore, Jajuan Johnson, and Robbie Hummel) led the team for years but Painter hasn't added a single true impact player since then. Swinging and missing for two full recruiting cycles is a bad look.
58. Lorenzo Romar, Washington (20-57-76-95-59): Romar is somehow in his 13th season in Seattle. In that time he's coached 13 NBA players but won just 8 NCAA tournament games. Romar had the Nate Robinson-led 2005 team that also included Brandon Roy and was a #1 seed in the Dance before getting toppled in the Sweet 16. Much like Painter above, Romar had early success at his alma mater before falling on hard times more recently. Washington was on top of the Pac-12 as recently as 2012, but they've been a .500 team ever since, despite having the talent to do more.
57. Mike Anderson, Arkansas (48-132-79-52-44): Anderson at least has a distinctive philosophy, running the frenetic, pressing, up-tempo Forty Minutes of Hell style that his mentor Nolan Richardson used to great effect once upon a time at Arkansas. So that's something, and now Anderson only has to translate that to great success. Anderson made six NCAA tournaments at UAB and Missouri, and Arkansas has shown steady improvement in Anderson's four years, but a fourth year guy looking at a 7-10 seed (maybe) doesn't inspire.
56. John Groce, Illinois (143-51-39-49-66): Illinois got hit with the injury bug a couple times this year so we lose a data point on Groce. He's recruiting well, though Illinois continued to finish out of the money for the top prospects in-state the past two cycles which will bear watching going forward. Out of the 18 current NBA players born in Illinois, not a single one played for the Fighting Illini. The lack of local recruiting is one of the things that did in Bruce Weber before he jumped to K-State.
55. Eddie Jordan, Rutgers (166-168): The good: a long NBA career and an extensive NBA coaching resume, including a fairly successful stint with the Wizards. The bad: Jordan was last in the college game in 1991 as a Rutgers assistant. All this makes him something of a poor man's Larry Brown. He's managed to beat a top 5 team and land a top 100 recruit already, both minor miracles at RU. Check back in two years.
54. Chris Collins, Northwestern (131-132): The first Coach K disciple on the list, a group which has been much more average than the man with 1,000 wins. Collins has the pedigree not only from Coach K but also from father Doug. It's far too early to tell with Collins, but even a single NCAA tournament appearance at Northwestern will have him shooting up the list. My guess is that we'll here predictions of just that for the next three years.
53. Mark Gottfried, North Carolina State (96-44-34-55-42): Gottfried generally has recruited well and made the NCAA tournament. When you look at his coaching profile, though, it becomes immediately clear that he has no ability to coach a passable defensive team. Not since way back in 2003 at Alabama has Gottfried coached a defense that ranked even in the top 75 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. You can't win a championship or even really compete for one when you're hapless on one side of the ball.
52. Travis Ford, Oklahoma State (73-92-22-26-30): Ford's ranking is definitely colored by last year's Cowboys' team that featured lottery pick/All-America candidate Marcus Smart that fell from a preseason top 10 to an 8-10 Big XII record and a first round loss in March. This year's version looks like another bubble team. If they find themselves on the right side it would be a fifth tournament appearance in seven years in Stillwater for Ford; if not, could be a fourth losing conference record in five seasons.
Saturday, January 24, 2015
Wednesday, January 21, 2015
2015 Coaching Hot Takes, Part Deux
And on we go...
75. Chris Holtmann (N/A) - I don't know anything about this guy. His resume is odd. He was the head coach at Gardner-Webb for three years, going 11-5 in his final season, before leaving to become an assistant at Butler under Brandon Miller. Then when Miller went on a leave of absence this year, Holtmann got promoted to head coach in the Big East. His wikipedia page is filled with quotes so flattering it reads like a Chris Holtmann press release, so maybe he knows how to work the internet.
74. Rick Ray (250-218-208) - Again, not much to go on here. Mississippi State was in bad shape when he arrived...and it's still in lousy shape. The guy has a degree in Applied Math, apparently, so I give him points for that, but the 'Dogs have to at least show signs of competing in this weak league in Ray's third season for him to escape the bottom of the list.
73. Jim Christian, Boston College (177-158-83-135-118) - Christian probably doesn't belong here in this category. He actually has a long track record as a head coach in competitive conferences, but this is the reaction to anyone hired by Boston College to coach their basketball team. The only ones who know anything about that guy are the couple hundred that show up to Alumni Hall to watch bad basketball every night.
72. Kim Anderson, Missouri (N/A) - This is a guy with an odd resume. He had a successful career at Missouri as a player, followed by a brief cup of coffee in the NBA, and then returned as an assistant for most of the '90s. He's won tons of games at Central Missouri, but that's a DII school. He's a 59 year old getting his first crack at the big time. He's an interesting hire at Missouri, but not one that would be hired elsewhere at a major conference level in all likelihood. Time will tell whether the Tigers' gamble pays dividends. For now, it's too early to tell.
71. Pat Chambers, Penn State (169-127-148-82-122) - Penn State isn't an easy place to win. That's probably one of the recurring themes this low on the list, but Chambers is 12-48 in B1G games there. He's got a few big wins to his credit, beating national finalist Michigan in 2012 and sweeping a good Ohio State team last year, but there just aren't enough overal wins.
70. Brad Brownell, Clemson (22-76-124-50-117) - This is one I waffled on this one. Clemson is fairly awful this year, and it's Brownell's fifth year. Flip side is that he's been at or above .500 in the ACC three times in his first four years and they've shown at least some signs of life in the recruiting game. In the end, you can probably split the difference and put him here. The ACC is strong, but there doesn't seem to be any reason for a program like Clemson not to make moves towards respectability. We'll see if Brownell to see if he can be any more than average.
69. Mark Fox, Georgia (59-108-103-72-29) - Georgia went 12-6 in the SEC last year and didn't really even spend time on the bubble. That's how empty those 12 SEC wins were and how bad they were out of conference. Fox did make a tournament back in 2011, his second year on the job, and this year's team looks reasonably competitive, if you believe in that sexy kenpom number. My only other thought is that he looks like a guy who wears glasses to look smart. A Tom Crean.
68. Trent Johnson, TCU (244-97-264-234-50) - Johnson was in some respects a rising star at Stanford, going 45-27 in the Pac-10 at what was then something of a premier program nationally. Then he jumped to LSU and didn't do much of anything, so he jumped to TCU ahead of the train that was probably soon to run him out of town, and now after two abysmal seasons in Fort Worth he's kind of turned them around, only not really because they're still going to finish ninth-ish in a ten team league. Johnson has finished last in his division or conference four of the past five years. I'm not betting on him.
67. Donnie Tyndall, Tennessee (83-183-66-56-79) - Tyndall has climbed the coaching ladder very fast, going from the OVC to Conference USA to the SEC in just a couple years, and surprisingly has Tennessee at 4-1 in the SEC in his first season on the job. Not bad for a program that lost everyone from last year, including two NBA draft picks. There's also the news that Southern Miss, Tyndall's last stop, is self-imposing a postseason ban for God Knows What, so I probably would decline to hire this guy right now. Better to focus efforts on the known SEC cheaters rather than the suspected ones.
66. Fran McCaffery, Iowa (92-89-25-28-48): McCaffery is 55 and his career highlight remains back to back first round tournament wins at Siena over Vanderbilt and Ohio State back in 2008 and 2009. He's never made it to the actual (round of 64) tournament in four seasons with Iowa and it's unclear that he will this year.
65. Billy Kennedy, Texas A&M (127-119-105-121-75) - Kennedy somewhat quietly put together a 2015 recruiting class with three consensus top 40 prospects. He'll need them because his improvement in College Station has been incremental yet. After six straight tournament appearances under Billy Gillespie and Mark Turgeon, the Aggies are still looking for their first in Kennedy's four seasons. The best recommendation for Kennedy at this point is his time at Murray State. He went 31-5 in 2010 and left the roster that went 31-2 in the first year after he left.
64. Anthony Grant, Alabama (47-27-60-92-45) - It's amazing what a difference a few years makes. Four or five years ago, Grant would have rated 50 spots higher on anyone's list. Easily. He was one of the hot names in coaching after guiding VCU to the tournament twice in three seasons, including a memorable upset of Duke in 2007, but since then he's missed the tournament four out of five years at Alabama while Shaka Smart has taken VCU from plucky underdog to perennial top 25 program. Grant and the Tide slid backwards last year, but went 33-17 in conference the three years before, making one tournament and winning 12 conference games in the other two seasons. The recruiting mojo hasn't been there either after top recruits like Devonta Pollard and Trevor Lacey didn't work out.
63. Kevin Stallings, Vanderbilt (41-12-95-112-58) - Stallings is somehow only 54, but with 15 years at his current job, he's one of the coaching deans on the list. Vandy was a regular in the NCAA tournament under Stallings for awhile, and just three years ago his team won then SEC Tournament by defeating the Anthony Davis-led Kentucky team that would go on to win the National Championship. This looks to be the third straight year that Vandy won't be dancing though.
62. Dana Altman, Oregon (86-56-28-29-88) - In the last twenty years, spent mostly at Creighton, Dana Altman has had a losing conference record twice. He's got nine NCAA tournament bids and 15 appearances in a major postseason tournament, but only five NCAA tournament wins. Altman has done a good job constantly bringing in transfers at Oregon to keep his roster stocked, but the mass exodus and personnel issues might be reflective of some of the pitfalls in that approach.
61. Leonard Hamilton, Florida State (29-25-121-41-142) - Hamilton has the reputation as a guy who recruits well but never does anything with the talent, a real "roll the ball out there" coach, but that's unfair. Hamilton has only made four NCAA tournaments at FSU, but had four other teams finish 42nd or higher in kenpom's rankings without making it and the program hasn't missed the postseason since 2005. Hamilton's career record is only so-so, but he took over three massive rebuilding (or perhaps just building) jobs at Oklahoma State, Miami, and Florida State, but a look at his records shows steady progress. Unfortunately, steady progress doesn't move the needle much in the rankings and at age 66 his best days may be behind him.
75. Chris Holtmann (N/A) - I don't know anything about this guy. His resume is odd. He was the head coach at Gardner-Webb for three years, going 11-5 in his final season, before leaving to become an assistant at Butler under Brandon Miller. Then when Miller went on a leave of absence this year, Holtmann got promoted to head coach in the Big East. His wikipedia page is filled with quotes so flattering it reads like a Chris Holtmann press release, so maybe he knows how to work the internet.
74. Rick Ray (250-218-208) - Again, not much to go on here. Mississippi State was in bad shape when he arrived...and it's still in lousy shape. The guy has a degree in Applied Math, apparently, so I give him points for that, but the 'Dogs have to at least show signs of competing in this weak league in Ray's third season for him to escape the bottom of the list.
73. Jim Christian, Boston College (177-158-83-135-118) - Christian probably doesn't belong here in this category. He actually has a long track record as a head coach in competitive conferences, but this is the reaction to anyone hired by Boston College to coach their basketball team. The only ones who know anything about that guy are the couple hundred that show up to Alumni Hall to watch bad basketball every night.
72. Kim Anderson, Missouri (N/A) - This is a guy with an odd resume. He had a successful career at Missouri as a player, followed by a brief cup of coffee in the NBA, and then returned as an assistant for most of the '90s. He's won tons of games at Central Missouri, but that's a DII school. He's a 59 year old getting his first crack at the big time. He's an interesting hire at Missouri, but not one that would be hired elsewhere at a major conference level in all likelihood. Time will tell whether the Tigers' gamble pays dividends. For now, it's too early to tell.
71. Pat Chambers, Penn State (169-127-148-82-122) - Penn State isn't an easy place to win. That's probably one of the recurring themes this low on the list, but Chambers is 12-48 in B1G games there. He's got a few big wins to his credit, beating national finalist Michigan in 2012 and sweeping a good Ohio State team last year, but there just aren't enough overal wins.
70. Brad Brownell, Clemson (22-76-124-50-117) - This is one I waffled on this one. Clemson is fairly awful this year, and it's Brownell's fifth year. Flip side is that he's been at or above .500 in the ACC three times in his first four years and they've shown at least some signs of life in the recruiting game. In the end, you can probably split the difference and put him here. The ACC is strong, but there doesn't seem to be any reason for a program like Clemson not to make moves towards respectability. We'll see if Brownell to see if he can be any more than average.
69. Mark Fox, Georgia (59-108-103-72-29) - Georgia went 12-6 in the SEC last year and didn't really even spend time on the bubble. That's how empty those 12 SEC wins were and how bad they were out of conference. Fox did make a tournament back in 2011, his second year on the job, and this year's team looks reasonably competitive, if you believe in that sexy kenpom number. My only other thought is that he looks like a guy who wears glasses to look smart. A Tom Crean.
68. Trent Johnson, TCU (244-97-264-234-50) - Johnson was in some respects a rising star at Stanford, going 45-27 in the Pac-10 at what was then something of a premier program nationally. Then he jumped to LSU and didn't do much of anything, so he jumped to TCU ahead of the train that was probably soon to run him out of town, and now after two abysmal seasons in Fort Worth he's kind of turned them around, only not really because they're still going to finish ninth-ish in a ten team league. Johnson has finished last in his division or conference four of the past five years. I'm not betting on him.
67. Donnie Tyndall, Tennessee (83-183-66-56-79) - Tyndall has climbed the coaching ladder very fast, going from the OVC to Conference USA to the SEC in just a couple years, and surprisingly has Tennessee at 4-1 in the SEC in his first season on the job. Not bad for a program that lost everyone from last year, including two NBA draft picks. There's also the news that Southern Miss, Tyndall's last stop, is self-imposing a postseason ban for God Knows What, so I probably would decline to hire this guy right now. Better to focus efforts on the known SEC cheaters rather than the suspected ones.
66. Fran McCaffery, Iowa (92-89-25-28-48): McCaffery is 55 and his career highlight remains back to back first round tournament wins at Siena over Vanderbilt and Ohio State back in 2008 and 2009. He's never made it to the actual (round of 64) tournament in four seasons with Iowa and it's unclear that he will this year.
65. Billy Kennedy, Texas A&M (127-119-105-121-75) - Kennedy somewhat quietly put together a 2015 recruiting class with three consensus top 40 prospects. He'll need them because his improvement in College Station has been incremental yet. After six straight tournament appearances under Billy Gillespie and Mark Turgeon, the Aggies are still looking for their first in Kennedy's four seasons. The best recommendation for Kennedy at this point is his time at Murray State. He went 31-5 in 2010 and left the roster that went 31-2 in the first year after he left.
64. Anthony Grant, Alabama (47-27-60-92-45) - It's amazing what a difference a few years makes. Four or five years ago, Grant would have rated 50 spots higher on anyone's list. Easily. He was one of the hot names in coaching after guiding VCU to the tournament twice in three seasons, including a memorable upset of Duke in 2007, but since then he's missed the tournament four out of five years at Alabama while Shaka Smart has taken VCU from plucky underdog to perennial top 25 program. Grant and the Tide slid backwards last year, but went 33-17 in conference the three years before, making one tournament and winning 12 conference games in the other two seasons. The recruiting mojo hasn't been there either after top recruits like Devonta Pollard and Trevor Lacey didn't work out.
63. Kevin Stallings, Vanderbilt (41-12-95-112-58) - Stallings is somehow only 54, but with 15 years at his current job, he's one of the coaching deans on the list. Vandy was a regular in the NCAA tournament under Stallings for awhile, and just three years ago his team won then SEC Tournament by defeating the Anthony Davis-led Kentucky team that would go on to win the National Championship. This looks to be the third straight year that Vandy won't be dancing though.
62. Dana Altman, Oregon (86-56-28-29-88) - In the last twenty years, spent mostly at Creighton, Dana Altman has had a losing conference record twice. He's got nine NCAA tournament bids and 15 appearances in a major postseason tournament, but only five NCAA tournament wins. Altman has done a good job constantly bringing in transfers at Oregon to keep his roster stocked, but the mass exodus and personnel issues might be reflective of some of the pitfalls in that approach.
61. Leonard Hamilton, Florida State (29-25-121-41-142) - Hamilton has the reputation as a guy who recruits well but never does anything with the talent, a real "roll the ball out there" coach, but that's unfair. Hamilton has only made four NCAA tournaments at FSU, but had four other teams finish 42nd or higher in kenpom's rankings without making it and the program hasn't missed the postseason since 2005. Hamilton's career record is only so-so, but he took over three massive rebuilding (or perhaps just building) jobs at Oklahoma State, Miami, and Florida State, but a look at his records shows steady progress. Unfortunately, steady progress doesn't move the needle much in the rankings and at age 66 his best days may be behind him.
Monday, January 19, 2015
The 2015 Coaching Hot Takes List Part I
The best coach in college basketball is a great bar argument at the imaginary bar where everyone cares about college basketball instead of their favorite NFL team's cap number. More realistically, you can go to any corner of the internet that serves a college athletics' fan base and read a good argument over which coaches are great and which suck. Is Calipari a slimy cheater or just a guy who uses the rules to his advantage? Does it matter? What if Tom Izzo's coaching had a baby with Roy Williams' coaching? How did [insert your coach's name here] lose to [presumed inferior opponent last week]? Was he even running an offense?
I'm as guilty as anyone of coaching hot takes - though I like to think that mine are bit more measured once the electrons form words on this blog - so I figured why not put them all together and rank every coach in the country.
Because that's stupid, and as obsessed as I am with college basketball, I couldn't speak intelligently about all 351 DI coaches, that's why. But what I absolutely can do is speak intelligently enough about 30 or 40 and then fake my way through another 30 or so and rank all the high-major coaches.
I'll be ranking the six power conferences (sorry to the AAC and MVC) and select coaches in other conferences like Mark Few or Gregg Marshall (sorry to Tulane's Ed Conroy and UTEP's Tim Floyd). The principles of this will follow closely to Bill Simmons annual NBA trade value columns but with a few twists for this subject. The main considerations:
Anyway, on with the Hot Takes while they're still sizzling.
Tier I - Why Bother?
84. Brian Gregory - Georgia Tech (101, 177, 102, 109, 92) - I don't know if Brian Gregory is the worst coach in major college basketball. It's probably unfair to rank the guys at the very bottom of the list because a) they have somewhat indiscernible resumes and b) they're all products (victims?) of their circumstances. But it's an ordered list that no one really cares about so someone gets the indignity of being last. Gregory's hiring by Georgia Tech was puzzling at the time. He had eight years at Dayton, a program with good tradition and great support for its level, and only once in his final six years managed a winning A-10 record or NCAA tournament berth. Gregory is now 16-41 in ACC games and recruiting is mostly non-existent. This should be an open job in the spring.
83. Oliver Purnell - Depaul (195-142-175-198-149) - Purnell sort of became a joke before leaving Clemson for making the tournament but not being able to win a game, which is really kind of amazing when you consider we're talking about Clemson basketball, owners of the 0-57 mark in Chapel Hill. He'd gotten them to the level where making the dance and finishing above .500 in conference was ordinary. Then he left for Depaul and things have been...bad, for both sides. Now Depaul isn't the easiest job, especially in the old Big East, but you probably can't lose to Lehigh by double digits in your fifth year on the job. Purnell has been a successful coach before, unlike some of the others ahead of him, but at age 61, would you want him building your program?
82. Andy Kennedy - Ole Miss (79-81-36-84-35) - Kennedy has coached in a power conference for a decade and made the field of 68 once, as a #12 seed. The Marshall Henderson Experience was mildly fun for a minute, but I'm not sure it's a good thing when the most memorable part of your decade on the job is taking the a huge problem child and giving him the ultimate green light. Kennedy has somehow managed to never have a losing record, which probably counts for something, and has some outside chance to make a run at a tournament bid this year, but if things haven't worked out in a decade, I don't want to bet on that coach.
81. Ernie Kent - Washington State (13-40-157-140-177) - Washington State hired this guy off the street! OK, he coached for a long time at Oregon before his firing in 2010 and had some teams there that were quite good, but as far as I can tell, he didn't coach at all in the four years since his departure in Eugene. That's a long time to be out of the game, and at age 60, Kent's best days are likely behind him. He was 16 games under .500 in conference at Oregon in 13 years, so you probably know what you're getting.
79. Greg McDermott - Creighton (94-35-18-24-114) - Greg McDermott went 18-46 in Big XII games at Iowa State. He also didn't recruit his son to come play for him until he landed at Creighton, thinking Doug McDermott might not be good enough to hack it in the Big XII. That son went on to score approximately 1,890,725 points in his collegiate career. And this was a guy who played in Greg McDermott's driveway! Pass.
78. Bruce Weber - Kansas State (19-82-21-43-85) - Weber inherited the roster of an historically great team at Illinois from Bill Self, guiding it to the National Championship game in his second season. Things looked great. But after making the tournament his first four seasons in Champaign, Weber missed it three out of his last five and jumped ship to K-State before he was forced to walk the plank. He's made the tournament his first two years in Manhattan with Frank Martin's players, but this year hasn't started off well. That's a lot of tournaments and tournament wins for someone so low on this list, but Weber is down here because of how heavily criticized his recruiting was at Illinois. Unable to mine talent-rich Chicago, Weber had too many marginal players on the roster. He might well be a good enough game coach and motivator to make some tournaments, but he's not building a roster that competes for a championship, so what's the point.
77. Herb Sendek - Arizona State (137-231-68-45-78) - NC State fans hated Herb, back when all he did was make the tournament as their head coach. As penance they had to sit through the Sid Lowe era. Sendek jumped to Tempe fresh off his fifth straight NCAA tournament appearance, and things haven't gone so well in his new home. Now in his ninth season, he's made just two tournaments and won one game while there. That one win came in a year where Sendek had two NBA players on the roster (James Harden and Jeff Ayres), but unfortunately for Sun Devils' fans, he doesn't often recruit that level of talent. I'll give him a bit of credit for moving away from the dreadfully slow Princeton style a bit in recent years.
76. Tubby Smith - Texas Tech (58-47-26-83-189) - Smith won a National Championship his first year at Kentucky, but that was with a loaded roster left to him by Rick Pitino. While he was never as successful after that as the UK fanbase hoped or expected, his teams still finished in the top 10 six times in 10 seasons. It could have been much worse -- see e.g. Gillespie, Billy. His Minnesota teams, though, never challenged in the conference, finishing .500 or below in league play in each of his six seasons. Smith is a fine coach, but at age 63, he has a track record that suggests he won't recruit nearly well enough to transform a program into a contender
I'm as guilty as anyone of coaching hot takes - though I like to think that mine are bit more measured once the electrons form words on this blog - so I figured why not put them all together and rank every coach in the country.
Because that's stupid, and as obsessed as I am with college basketball, I couldn't speak intelligently about all 351 DI coaches, that's why. But what I absolutely can do is speak intelligently enough about 30 or 40 and then fake my way through another 30 or so and rank all the high-major coaches.
I'll be ranking the six power conferences (sorry to the AAC and MVC) and select coaches in other conferences like Mark Few or Gregg Marshall (sorry to Tulane's Ed Conroy and UTEP's Tim Floyd). The principles of this will follow closely to Bill Simmons annual NBA trade value columns but with a few twists for this subject. The main considerations:
- Assume this is for the next eight years, giving each coach long enough to have two full recruiting cycles and the chance to coach them all.
- Assume the coach is taking over an average program with average talent. That means that a coach who does a better job of maximizing talent will probably be better in the first few years while the stronger recruiters will shine later on.
- Assume that every coach makes it to the end of his eight year tenure, but factor in age as appropriate. Coach K is great, but how great will he be at age 75?
- The end goal for every hypothetical program is to win a title. In reality, some schools, even ones in major conferences, will be happy with a guy that makes the tournament sometimes and keeps the program clean. The basic criteria is who would win the most games, but coaches who have definitively shown that they can't build a contender will rank very low.
- Last five years' kenpom ranks are in parenthesis.
Anyway, on with the Hot Takes while they're still sizzling.
Tier I - Why Bother?
84. Brian Gregory - Georgia Tech (101, 177, 102, 109, 92) - I don't know if Brian Gregory is the worst coach in major college basketball. It's probably unfair to rank the guys at the very bottom of the list because a) they have somewhat indiscernible resumes and b) they're all products (victims?) of their circumstances. But it's an ordered list that no one really cares about so someone gets the indignity of being last. Gregory's hiring by Georgia Tech was puzzling at the time. He had eight years at Dayton, a program with good tradition and great support for its level, and only once in his final six years managed a winning A-10 record or NCAA tournament berth. Gregory is now 16-41 in ACC games and recruiting is mostly non-existent. This should be an open job in the spring.
83. Oliver Purnell - Depaul (195-142-175-198-149) - Purnell sort of became a joke before leaving Clemson for making the tournament but not being able to win a game, which is really kind of amazing when you consider we're talking about Clemson basketball, owners of the 0-57 mark in Chapel Hill. He'd gotten them to the level where making the dance and finishing above .500 in conference was ordinary. Then he left for Depaul and things have been...bad, for both sides. Now Depaul isn't the easiest job, especially in the old Big East, but you probably can't lose to Lehigh by double digits in your fifth year on the job. Purnell has been a successful coach before, unlike some of the others ahead of him, but at age 61, would you want him building your program?
82. Andy Kennedy - Ole Miss (79-81-36-84-35) - Kennedy has coached in a power conference for a decade and made the field of 68 once, as a #12 seed. The Marshall Henderson Experience was mildly fun for a minute, but I'm not sure it's a good thing when the most memorable part of your decade on the job is taking the a huge problem child and giving him the ultimate green light. Kennedy has somehow managed to never have a losing record, which probably counts for something, and has some outside chance to make a run at a tournament bid this year, but if things haven't worked out in a decade, I don't want to bet on that coach.
81. Ernie Kent - Washington State (13-40-157-140-177) - Washington State hired this guy off the street! OK, he coached for a long time at Oregon before his firing in 2010 and had some teams there that were quite good, but as far as I can tell, he didn't coach at all in the four years since his departure in Eugene. That's a long time to be out of the game, and at age 60, Kent's best days are likely behind him. He was 16 games under .500 in conference at Oregon in 13 years, so you probably know what you're getting.
79. Greg McDermott - Creighton (94-35-18-24-114) - Greg McDermott went 18-46 in Big XII games at Iowa State. He also didn't recruit his son to come play for him until he landed at Creighton, thinking Doug McDermott might not be good enough to hack it in the Big XII. That son went on to score approximately 1,890,725 points in his collegiate career. And this was a guy who played in Greg McDermott's driveway! Pass.
78. Bruce Weber - Kansas State (19-82-21-43-85) - Weber inherited the roster of an historically great team at Illinois from Bill Self, guiding it to the National Championship game in his second season. Things looked great. But after making the tournament his first four seasons in Champaign, Weber missed it three out of his last five and jumped ship to K-State before he was forced to walk the plank. He's made the tournament his first two years in Manhattan with Frank Martin's players, but this year hasn't started off well. That's a lot of tournaments and tournament wins for someone so low on this list, but Weber is down here because of how heavily criticized his recruiting was at Illinois. Unable to mine talent-rich Chicago, Weber had too many marginal players on the roster. He might well be a good enough game coach and motivator to make some tournaments, but he's not building a roster that competes for a championship, so what's the point.
77. Herb Sendek - Arizona State (137-231-68-45-78) - NC State fans hated Herb, back when all he did was make the tournament as their head coach. As penance they had to sit through the Sid Lowe era. Sendek jumped to Tempe fresh off his fifth straight NCAA tournament appearance, and things haven't gone so well in his new home. Now in his ninth season, he's made just two tournaments and won one game while there. That one win came in a year where Sendek had two NBA players on the roster (James Harden and Jeff Ayres), but unfortunately for Sun Devils' fans, he doesn't often recruit that level of talent. I'll give him a bit of credit for moving away from the dreadfully slow Princeton style a bit in recent years.
76. Tubby Smith - Texas Tech (58-47-26-83-189) - Smith won a National Championship his first year at Kentucky, but that was with a loaded roster left to him by Rick Pitino. While he was never as successful after that as the UK fanbase hoped or expected, his teams still finished in the top 10 six times in 10 seasons. It could have been much worse -- see e.g. Gillespie, Billy. His Minnesota teams, though, never challenged in the conference, finishing .500 or below in league play in each of his six seasons. Smith is a fine coach, but at age 63, he has a track record that suggests he won't recruit nearly well enough to transform a program into a contender
Monday, January 12, 2015
Nuggets
*Splitting a road trip isn't bad, especially after getting a hard fought win at Michigan State to open conference play. The performance against Illinois was poor, but the Terps have two of only nine road wins through the first two weeks of league play. Not shabby.
*Evan Smotrycz leads the Terps in defensive rebounding with a 20.0 DR%. That's one reason that some of the criticism of his game this year has been harsh. He needs to hit open shots in his stretch four role, but he's contributing. Mark Turgeon also made a point to praise his defense after the Purdue game. At the very least, he's able to play defense without fouling, unlike his counterparts.
*Jared Nickens' one-dimensional scoring game has been even more pronounced in league games. He's taken 14 threes against just one shot inside the arc.
*Damonte Dodd's top kenpom comparable for this season is Jeff Withey. He's a guy who established himself as a premier shotblocker who began to gain national notoriety as he expanded his offensive game. One area where Withey improved that Dodd needs big help is avoiding and drawing fouls:
As useful as Dodd has been (big shoutout for 16 assists already), he can't help the team if he can't stay on the court.
*Melo Trimble's ability to get to the foul line hasn't abated since the beginning of league play. He's made 8 FT per game in four league games compared to 6.5 over the non-conference schedule, continuing to display the ability to draw fouls seemingly at will during crucial moments. Trimble moved into second place on the all-time Maryland freshman list, and it's only a matter of when he will pass Joe Smith as the most prolific rookie free throw shooter in program history.
*Evan Smotrycz leads the Terps in defensive rebounding with a 20.0 DR%. That's one reason that some of the criticism of his game this year has been harsh. He needs to hit open shots in his stretch four role, but he's contributing. Mark Turgeon also made a point to praise his defense after the Purdue game. At the very least, he's able to play defense without fouling, unlike his counterparts.
*Jared Nickens' one-dimensional scoring game has been even more pronounced in league games. He's taken 14 threes against just one shot inside the arc.
*Damonte Dodd's top kenpom comparable for this season is Jeff Withey. He's a guy who established himself as a premier shotblocker who began to gain national notoriety as he expanded his offensive game. One area where Withey improved that Dodd needs big help is avoiding and drawing fouls:
As useful as Dodd has been (big shoutout for 16 assists already), he can't help the team if he can't stay on the court.
*Melo Trimble's ability to get to the foul line hasn't abated since the beginning of league play. He's made 8 FT per game in four league games compared to 6.5 over the non-conference schedule, continuing to display the ability to draw fouls seemingly at will during crucial moments. Trimble moved into second place on the all-time Maryland freshman list, and it's only a matter of when he will pass Joe Smith as the most prolific rookie free throw shooter in program history.
Sunday, January 11, 2015
Defensive Explosion
If you've been watching college basketball for more than five minutes, you probably know that offense is on the decline across the country. Maybe you can see it when you watch, maybe you've looked at the numbers, or maybe you've the increasingly frequent mentions from college basketball writers and announcers. The NCAA took some steps last year to boost offense last year, but gains made last year haven't stuck. What gives?
First in chart form:
[caption id="attachment_273" align="alignnone" width="605"]
sources: kenpom, ncaa record book, kpi-sports[/caption]
The first surprise for me is how little per-possession efficiency has changed in that time span - just 0.5 points per 100 possessions. There are two spikes in the graph. One is a smaller mid-decade bump and one is last year which was mentioned above, but those gains (and more) have, again, been given back.
It's no surprise then that tempo and points track fairly closely. Both have decreased by about 4 per game over 14 seasons. 0.5 points per 100 possessions in efficiency is probably imperceptible, but 4 possessions is going to be noticeable. The interesting takeaway here is that the players aren't necessarily "worse". We often hear one and dones being a reason that college basketball isn't as good, or the AAU influence, and while those both probably factor into longer term trends, the equilibrium between offense and defense hasn't changed much on each possession.
How has offense changed at a lower level?
[caption id="attachment_274" align="alignnone" width="605"]
source: kenpom[/caption]
FT rate increased markedly last year as officials called games tighter. That's mostly stopped this year, though teams are shooting more FT than they did in 2012 and 2013. Turnovers are on a steady decline, making it hard to see how the game is getting sloppier as we so often here.
The flip side of less turnovers is more shots being taken. And in that case, things don't look great. We're definitely seeing more misses. Three point shooting and free throws are at their lowest levels in this period and two point percentage could set a record-low as well. It may be time to move the three-point line back from 20'9" to 19'9". That one never made much sense to me.
But what about the power conferences? Those are the ones we watch the most. Are they tracking with DI? The average statistics assume changes at Weber State matter as much as changes in Washington State. It would be a nice, egalitarian world if that were true, but it's just not. You don't see the smaller conferences unless you go searching for them, and it's probably fair to assume that when they get to play the big boys early in the year, the power conference teams are the one dictating pace and style more often than not.
So, more chartage:
When you consider only the top six conferences, you can see that pace of play has fallen by much more than the rest of Division I since 2002. While the whole of DI has seen 3.7 fewer possessions, the average power conference game* is down 6 possessions, going from slightly above average in 2002 to almost 2 possessions per game below average this season.
The ACC is a big offender. Some of that is an influx of new teams, but former running stalwart Duke is a mid-tempo team, even by today's standards. In raw terms, the average Duke team has eight less possessions each game than it did in 2002. Jim Boeheim and Syracuse are similar, using 10 fewer possessions last year than in 2002, before rebounding a bit this year.
I don't have any clue what to make of this. Is it just cyclical? When we look at just the six power conferences, that's around just 18% of the total Division I membership.
Kenpom weighed in with some thoughts earlier in the season. The main idea to takeaway is that measures which are only designed to increase pace of play, for example lowering the shot clock to 30 seconds, will come at the expense of per possession efficiency. It's important that the NCAA takes action to both increase the quality and number of possessions. Some might not think we've reached the critical point yet, but as I watch #7 Arizona and Oregon State locked in a 24-24 brawl at the under-16 of the second half, I think we are.
*Averages are not weighted by teams in each conference. POWER average is a simple average of the six conferences' individual pace.
First in chart form:
[caption id="attachment_273" align="alignnone" width="605"]
sources: kenpom, ncaa record book, kpi-sports[/caption]The first surprise for me is how little per-possession efficiency has changed in that time span - just 0.5 points per 100 possessions. There are two spikes in the graph. One is a smaller mid-decade bump and one is last year which was mentioned above, but those gains (and more) have, again, been given back.
It's no surprise then that tempo and points track fairly closely. Both have decreased by about 4 per game over 14 seasons. 0.5 points per 100 possessions in efficiency is probably imperceptible, but 4 possessions is going to be noticeable. The interesting takeaway here is that the players aren't necessarily "worse". We often hear one and dones being a reason that college basketball isn't as good, or the AAU influence, and while those both probably factor into longer term trends, the equilibrium between offense and defense hasn't changed much on each possession.
How has offense changed at a lower level?
[caption id="attachment_274" align="alignnone" width="605"]
source: kenpom[/caption]FT rate increased markedly last year as officials called games tighter. That's mostly stopped this year, though teams are shooting more FT than they did in 2012 and 2013. Turnovers are on a steady decline, making it hard to see how the game is getting sloppier as we so often here.
The flip side of less turnovers is more shots being taken. And in that case, things don't look great. We're definitely seeing more misses. Three point shooting and free throws are at their lowest levels in this period and two point percentage could set a record-low as well. It may be time to move the three-point line back from 20'9" to 19'9". That one never made much sense to me.
But what about the power conferences? Those are the ones we watch the most. Are they tracking with DI? The average statistics assume changes at Weber State matter as much as changes in Washington State. It would be a nice, egalitarian world if that were true, but it's just not. You don't see the smaller conferences unless you go searching for them, and it's probably fair to assume that when they get to play the big boys early in the year, the power conference teams are the one dictating pace and style more often than not.
So, more chartage:
When you consider only the top six conferences, you can see that pace of play has fallen by much more than the rest of Division I since 2002. While the whole of DI has seen 3.7 fewer possessions, the average power conference game* is down 6 possessions, going from slightly above average in 2002 to almost 2 possessions per game below average this season.
The ACC is a big offender. Some of that is an influx of new teams, but former running stalwart Duke is a mid-tempo team, even by today's standards. In raw terms, the average Duke team has eight less possessions each game than it did in 2002. Jim Boeheim and Syracuse are similar, using 10 fewer possessions last year than in 2002, before rebounding a bit this year.
I don't have any clue what to make of this. Is it just cyclical? When we look at just the six power conferences, that's around just 18% of the total Division I membership.
Kenpom weighed in with some thoughts earlier in the season. The main idea to takeaway is that measures which are only designed to increase pace of play, for example lowering the shot clock to 30 seconds, will come at the expense of per possession efficiency. It's important that the NCAA takes action to both increase the quality and number of possessions. Some might not think we've reached the critical point yet, but as I watch #7 Arizona and Oregon State locked in a 24-24 brawl at the under-16 of the second half, I think we are.
*Averages are not weighted by teams in each conference. POWER average is a simple average of the six conferences' individual pace.
Tuesday, January 6, 2015
Big Ten Rewind
Now that we're halfway through the season and entering the meat of the conference schedule, we can look back at the predictions that were made three months ago in preseason and tweak them, making new predictions which will probably look equally foolhardy. Then numbers are the preseason media poll and now are the ordinal rank in conference via KenPom. Let's go, shall we?
Rutgers (Then: 14, Now: 14) - The Scarlet Knights aren't very good. They did manage some incremental improvement. They went 2-2 against in-state foes rather than 0-3, and they've yet to lose to Louisville, or indeed anyone, by 61 points this year. The team simply has little talent, and it's not a surprise. They were a consensus pick for last in the preseason and that hasn't changed.
Northwestern (Then: 13, Now: 13) - OK, two in a row right? This is going to be a boring post. I swear I saw one blurb about the Wildcats finally breaking The Streak this year, but it's not happening. Chris Collins is upgrading the talent, but when your best win is Western Michigan and you've lost by double digits (at home, naturally) to Central Michigan, things are grim. Neither Chris Kaman nor Thunder Dan Majerle played in that CMU game from what I can glean from the box score.
Penn State (Then 12, Now 11) - Penn State started the year 12-1, and since it was a team that never has any expectations, it was easy to ignore that none of those wins were over teams that are particularly good or that they were almost all close home wins that could have gone the other way. Then they lost big at Wiscy, and hey, no shame there. But then they lost at Rutgers, and any hopes of making a run to the tournament ought to have died there. KenPom actually has them as a little worse than last year's sub .500 club, though if Brandon Taylor can provide a second offensive option behind star DJ Newbill an NIT is certainly within reach.
Purdue (Then 11, Now 9) - Purdue has had its share of exits, losses, and trouble since the Baby Boilers of Robbie Hummel and crew left campus, but there was some hope coming into the season. Kendall Stephens had a promising freshman season and AJ Hammons is a big, tall, seven-foot athlete who gets mentioned with the NBA prospect tag at times. Purdue lost to North Florida and Gardner-Webb, allowing them to make a combined 24-47 from deep, and that's been a problem all year at 39%. That will probably regress a bit as the year goes on and the Boilers have started 2-0 in conference so they may be a good bet to surprise.
Indiana (Then 10th, Now 7th) - Indiana was a program in disarray with suspensions and legal skirmishes before the season coming off the heels of a disappointing 2013-14 (which itself came off the heels of a disappointing 2013 tournament performance). The results haven't been disappointing necessarily, but it's a deeply flawed team that ranks outside the top 200 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Hoosiers put little pressure on the offense (319th in defensive turnover %) and rank 7th nationally in shots allowed at the rim. Indiana is young and smallish, without any rim protectors. Getting ripped by Louisville or Michigan State is forgivable, but giving up 88 in a loss to Eastern Washington isn't.
Minnesota (Then 9th, Now 5th) - Is this a point for the Gophers or a point against the depth of the league? They may be the biggest mystery in the league at this point given their weak non-conference schedule. They've started 0-2 in the league, but both were road games and their efficiency ranks in the top 50 on both sides of the ball. The Gophers have picked up their defense quite a bit from last year due to an increase in forced turnovers. Head Coach Richard Pitino's team is bettering his own father at Louisville and out Havoc-ing VCU at 3rd in the nation.
Maryland (Then 8th, Now 3rd) - This article was a little more fun in concept last night before the Terps dropped from second to third, one spot behind Michigan State. Despite five players transferring in the offseason, improvements from its returning players (Damonte Dodd), impact freshman (Melo Trimble) and contributing transfers (Richaud Pack) have raise the program back to the national eye. Dez Wells was last year's leading scorer but suffered a wrist injury and has yet to get his offensive game back on track. If he can do that, the Terps could be even more formidable.
Iowa (Then 7th, Now 5th) - Iowa may be the undervalued team in the B1G so far, having scored road wins over North Carolina and Ohio State but having also largely flown below the radar. Aaron White has been outstanding, and Jarrod Uthoff has taken on a much bigger offense role after Roy Devyn Marble's departure. Uthoff was previously most famous for the controversy surrounding his transfer from Wisconsin to Iowa a couple years ago, but he's scored 33 in his first two conference games this season.
Illinois (Then 6th, Now 8th) - The hope coming into the year was that transfers Aaron Cosby (Seton Hall) and Ahmad Starks (Oregon State) could provide veteran backcourt help to the nation's 177th ranked offense. That hasn't quite worked out as both have been relatively inefficient, but the offense has improved, particularly at putting the ball in the basket, due to increased contributions from Sophomores Kendrick Nunn and Malcolm Hill supporting Senior Rayvonte Rice. They'll need more help from the veterans, though. The Illini has dug itself an 0-2 hole in conference play and just lost Rice for at least the next month to a fractured wrist.
Nebraska (Then 5th, Now 12th) - Tim Miles did an outstanding job getting his Huskers to the NCAA Tournament for the first time in over a decade last year and expectations were high both internally and from pundits. Yet Nebraska is just 8-6 and looks a longshot for even an NIT bid. What happened? The offense has cratered. It was not strong last year, but stayed afloat by taking care of the ball despite not making shots or getting second opportunities on the offensive glass. Nebraska had everyone back from a good team, so it shouldn't shock anyone if they outpace their projections going forward, but the roster is mostly low ceiling players who maxed out last year so nothing will come easily even in a weakened B1G.
Michigan (Then 4th, Now 10th) - John Beilein has a reputation as a masterful game coach and developer of talent, but he had a staggering five NBA draft picks helping his team make deep tournament runs the past couple years. Now the talent simply isn't there, and while no one could have predicted losses to NJIT or Eastern Michigan, the roster doesn't look to have enough talent on paper to contend for conference or national honors again this season. Caris LeVert has done his part, leading the Wolverines in points, rebounds and assists, but he doesn't have help. Derrick Walton, a highly rated recruit who flourished last year when surrounded by talent, has been particularly ineffective shooting and taking care of the ball. Beilein's teams have never played much defense, so it's jarring to see that unit rank ahead of the offense for Michigan. The Wolverines have dropped to just 130th in the country offensively after leading the country in adjusted efficiency for two straight years.
Michigan State (Then 3rd, Now 2nd) - Tom Izzo has managed to lose five games, including one to Texas Southern of the SWAC, and still exceed expectations. That's probably being a little generous, but Izzo's team should not have much difficulty making an 18th straight appearance in March Madness. The Spartans haven't found a way to replace Adreian Payne and Gary Harris offensively, but the defense and rebounding are vintage Michigan State.
Ohio State (Then 2nd, Now 4th) - Do you believe that margin of victory matters? Ohio State played a weak non-conference schedule and lost both of its games to good teams (@ Louisville and vs. UNC). Its best wins are over Marquette and Illinois -- both at home. Yet it rates high in efficiency ratings due to winning games by lopsided scores like 100-55 (Wright State), 106-48 (Sacred Heart), and 97-43 (High Point). OSU has a deep stable of talent players, and the Bucks have performed well statistically in almost all areas this season. Thad Matta is using his bench more than any season since the Greg Oden 2007 team that played for a National Championship. De'Angelo Russell and Shannon Scott are the top talent the Buckeyes usually have, but contributions from reserves like Kam Williams, Trey McDonald and Anthony Lee will also be key if OSU is to advance to the tournament's second weekend for the fifth time in six seasons.
Wisconsin (Then 1st, Now 1st) - We often judge on small samples so it may be that Wisconsin's opportunity to be perceived among the true elites nationally was destroyed when it lost by double digits at home against Duke in the ACC-B1G challenge. The Badgers have tightened up the defense and look a good bet to enter this year's tournament with fewer losses than last year's seven and their first conference title since 2008. Wisconsin always reloads with Bo Ryan's type of player, but with three seniors and likely NBA draft pick Sam Dekker among the starters, this is the year for Wisconsin. One loss to Duke certainly doesn't change that.
Rutgers (Then: 14, Now: 14) - The Scarlet Knights aren't very good. They did manage some incremental improvement. They went 2-2 against in-state foes rather than 0-3, and they've yet to lose to Louisville, or indeed anyone, by 61 points this year. The team simply has little talent, and it's not a surprise. They were a consensus pick for last in the preseason and that hasn't changed.
Northwestern (Then: 13, Now: 13) - OK, two in a row right? This is going to be a boring post. I swear I saw one blurb about the Wildcats finally breaking The Streak this year, but it's not happening. Chris Collins is upgrading the talent, but when your best win is Western Michigan and you've lost by double digits (at home, naturally) to Central Michigan, things are grim. Neither Chris Kaman nor Thunder Dan Majerle played in that CMU game from what I can glean from the box score.
Penn State (Then 12, Now 11) - Penn State started the year 12-1, and since it was a team that never has any expectations, it was easy to ignore that none of those wins were over teams that are particularly good or that they were almost all close home wins that could have gone the other way. Then they lost big at Wiscy, and hey, no shame there. But then they lost at Rutgers, and any hopes of making a run to the tournament ought to have died there. KenPom actually has them as a little worse than last year's sub .500 club, though if Brandon Taylor can provide a second offensive option behind star DJ Newbill an NIT is certainly within reach.
Purdue (Then 11, Now 9) - Purdue has had its share of exits, losses, and trouble since the Baby Boilers of Robbie Hummel and crew left campus, but there was some hope coming into the season. Kendall Stephens had a promising freshman season and AJ Hammons is a big, tall, seven-foot athlete who gets mentioned with the NBA prospect tag at times. Purdue lost to North Florida and Gardner-Webb, allowing them to make a combined 24-47 from deep, and that's been a problem all year at 39%. That will probably regress a bit as the year goes on and the Boilers have started 2-0 in conference so they may be a good bet to surprise.
Indiana (Then 10th, Now 7th) - Indiana was a program in disarray with suspensions and legal skirmishes before the season coming off the heels of a disappointing 2013-14 (which itself came off the heels of a disappointing 2013 tournament performance). The results haven't been disappointing necessarily, but it's a deeply flawed team that ranks outside the top 200 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Hoosiers put little pressure on the offense (319th in defensive turnover %) and rank 7th nationally in shots allowed at the rim. Indiana is young and smallish, without any rim protectors. Getting ripped by Louisville or Michigan State is forgivable, but giving up 88 in a loss to Eastern Washington isn't.
Minnesota (Then 9th, Now 5th) - Is this a point for the Gophers or a point against the depth of the league? They may be the biggest mystery in the league at this point given their weak non-conference schedule. They've started 0-2 in the league, but both were road games and their efficiency ranks in the top 50 on both sides of the ball. The Gophers have picked up their defense quite a bit from last year due to an increase in forced turnovers. Head Coach Richard Pitino's team is bettering his own father at Louisville and out Havoc-ing VCU at 3rd in the nation.
Maryland (Then 8th, Now 3rd) - This article was a little more fun in concept last night before the Terps dropped from second to third, one spot behind Michigan State. Despite five players transferring in the offseason, improvements from its returning players (Damonte Dodd), impact freshman (Melo Trimble) and contributing transfers (Richaud Pack) have raise the program back to the national eye. Dez Wells was last year's leading scorer but suffered a wrist injury and has yet to get his offensive game back on track. If he can do that, the Terps could be even more formidable.
Iowa (Then 7th, Now 5th) - Iowa may be the undervalued team in the B1G so far, having scored road wins over North Carolina and Ohio State but having also largely flown below the radar. Aaron White has been outstanding, and Jarrod Uthoff has taken on a much bigger offense role after Roy Devyn Marble's departure. Uthoff was previously most famous for the controversy surrounding his transfer from Wisconsin to Iowa a couple years ago, but he's scored 33 in his first two conference games this season.
Illinois (Then 6th, Now 8th) - The hope coming into the year was that transfers Aaron Cosby (Seton Hall) and Ahmad Starks (Oregon State) could provide veteran backcourt help to the nation's 177th ranked offense. That hasn't quite worked out as both have been relatively inefficient, but the offense has improved, particularly at putting the ball in the basket, due to increased contributions from Sophomores Kendrick Nunn and Malcolm Hill supporting Senior Rayvonte Rice. They'll need more help from the veterans, though. The Illini has dug itself an 0-2 hole in conference play and just lost Rice for at least the next month to a fractured wrist.
Nebraska (Then 5th, Now 12th) - Tim Miles did an outstanding job getting his Huskers to the NCAA Tournament for the first time in over a decade last year and expectations were high both internally and from pundits. Yet Nebraska is just 8-6 and looks a longshot for even an NIT bid. What happened? The offense has cratered. It was not strong last year, but stayed afloat by taking care of the ball despite not making shots or getting second opportunities on the offensive glass. Nebraska had everyone back from a good team, so it shouldn't shock anyone if they outpace their projections going forward, but the roster is mostly low ceiling players who maxed out last year so nothing will come easily even in a weakened B1G.
Michigan (Then 4th, Now 10th) - John Beilein has a reputation as a masterful game coach and developer of talent, but he had a staggering five NBA draft picks helping his team make deep tournament runs the past couple years. Now the talent simply isn't there, and while no one could have predicted losses to NJIT or Eastern Michigan, the roster doesn't look to have enough talent on paper to contend for conference or national honors again this season. Caris LeVert has done his part, leading the Wolverines in points, rebounds and assists, but he doesn't have help. Derrick Walton, a highly rated recruit who flourished last year when surrounded by talent, has been particularly ineffective shooting and taking care of the ball. Beilein's teams have never played much defense, so it's jarring to see that unit rank ahead of the offense for Michigan. The Wolverines have dropped to just 130th in the country offensively after leading the country in adjusted efficiency for two straight years.
Michigan State (Then 3rd, Now 2nd) - Tom Izzo has managed to lose five games, including one to Texas Southern of the SWAC, and still exceed expectations. That's probably being a little generous, but Izzo's team should not have much difficulty making an 18th straight appearance in March Madness. The Spartans haven't found a way to replace Adreian Payne and Gary Harris offensively, but the defense and rebounding are vintage Michigan State.
Ohio State (Then 2nd, Now 4th) - Do you believe that margin of victory matters? Ohio State played a weak non-conference schedule and lost both of its games to good teams (@ Louisville and vs. UNC). Its best wins are over Marquette and Illinois -- both at home. Yet it rates high in efficiency ratings due to winning games by lopsided scores like 100-55 (Wright State), 106-48 (Sacred Heart), and 97-43 (High Point). OSU has a deep stable of talent players, and the Bucks have performed well statistically in almost all areas this season. Thad Matta is using his bench more than any season since the Greg Oden 2007 team that played for a National Championship. De'Angelo Russell and Shannon Scott are the top talent the Buckeyes usually have, but contributions from reserves like Kam Williams, Trey McDonald and Anthony Lee will also be key if OSU is to advance to the tournament's second weekend for the fifth time in six seasons.
Wisconsin (Then 1st, Now 1st) - We often judge on small samples so it may be that Wisconsin's opportunity to be perceived among the true elites nationally was destroyed when it lost by double digits at home against Duke in the ACC-B1G challenge. The Badgers have tightened up the defense and look a good bet to enter this year's tournament with fewer losses than last year's seven and their first conference title since 2008. Wisconsin always reloads with Bo Ryan's type of player, but with three seniors and likely NBA draft pick Sam Dekker among the starters, this is the year for Wisconsin. One loss to Duke certainly doesn't change that.
Monday, December 29, 2014
Paying to Lose
One of the unique quirks of early season college basketball are guarantee games. A major conference pays one of the couple hundred Division I minnows a tidy sum to come to their arena for a loss. The little guy gets a guaranteed check (which helps keep the Athletic Department's lights on) and the big boy gets a guaranteed win. Except, it doesn't always work out that way. Sometimes the little guy isn't all that bad, or at least not relative to the team whose gym they're visiting, and they come away with both the cash and a notch in their win column.
With so much talk about the B1G's embarrassing non-conference losses, let's look at how all six power conferences did now that we've (mostly) closed the books on the guarantee games for the year.
Big XII (1):
Kansas State (Texas Southern)
The Big XII is sort of the consensus best league in the country right now, at least inasmuch as you get consensus on that. Seven teams were ranked last week, and they almost escaped this list entirely before a miracle comeback by Texas Southern over the weekend against K-State.
Big East (4):
Providence (Brown), Creighton (North Texas), Marquette (Omaha), Depaul (Lehigh)
The new Big East got a lot of hype early on during as the Thanksgiving tournaments were happening due to strong performances there, but they've fallen off a bit, not so much for losing to the dregs of DI but more for losing to mediocre power conference teams like Georgia or Auburn...or the mere existence of Depaul's basketball program.
SEC (6):
Ole Miss (Charleston Southern, Western Kentucky), Mississippi State (Arkansas State, USC-Upstate), Auburn (Coastal Carolina), Missouri (UMKC)
The SEC has had a basketball conference as weak as its football conference is strong in recent years, but they've made a concerted effort to at least schedule more competitively out of conference. It's worked. The SEC has the #1 SOS so far in 2014-15. Ole Miss is surprising to see on the list, especially with two games to its discredit, as they were thought to be a middle of the pack team, but at least the other three schools on this list were all known to be deep in the rebuilding phase.
PAC-12 (7):
USC (Army, Portland State), Washington (Stony Brook), Arizona State (Lehigh), California (Cal State-Bakersfield), Oregon State (Quinnipiac), Washington State (Idaho)
Rough Sunday night for the Pac-12 with Washington falling from the ranks of the unbeatens against Stony Brook (who came all the way from New York) and Cal dropping one to an in-state school. For as much as you think the RPI is worth, the Pac-12 is closer to the A10 than any of the other conferences listed here. That's not entirely due to a few bad losses, but aside from heavy favorite Arizona, only Utah has put itself in really strong position going into conference play.
Big Ten (10):
Michigan State (Texas Southern), Indiana (Eastern Washington), Nebraska (Incarnate Word), Michigan (NJIT, Eastern Michigan), Purdue (Gardner-Webb, North Florida), Rutgers (St Peter's, St Francis PA), Northwestern (Central Michigan)
It's not so much the number of losses in this conference but who lost them. Indiana had a tumultuous offseason, but Michigan, Michigan State, and Nebraska were all ranked to start the year. Michigan State will still probably be fine, and Maryland, Minnesota and Illinois looks to fill the second tier vacuum instead of some of the teams above. The season hasn't been kind in general though, as the B1G is just 5th in the conference RPI rankings and 4th in kenpom's conference ranks - well below where they envisioned themselves this season.
ACC (11):
Miami (Eastern Kentucky, Green Bay), Virginia Tech (Radford, Appalachian State), Clemson (Winthrop, Gardner-Webb), Georgia Tech (USC-Upstate), NC State (Wofford), Wake Forest (Delaware State, Iona), Florida State (Northeastern)
I do revel a little bit in the difference between the ACC's self-proclamations and its reality so far. No question that Louisville, Duke, and Virginia is an awesome trio, but powers UNC and Syracuse (not pictured above) have been subpar so far and the bottom of the league continues to drag down a very strong top. Miami fell from the rankings due to its too losses above. Tough to punish them too much for a loss to Green Bay and Keifer Sykes, but losing by almost 30 at home to Eastern Kentucky is fairly shameful.
With so much talk about the B1G's embarrassing non-conference losses, let's look at how all six power conferences did now that we've (mostly) closed the books on the guarantee games for the year.
Big XII (1):
Kansas State (Texas Southern)
The Big XII is sort of the consensus best league in the country right now, at least inasmuch as you get consensus on that. Seven teams were ranked last week, and they almost escaped this list entirely before a miracle comeback by Texas Southern over the weekend against K-State.
Big East (4):
Providence (Brown), Creighton (North Texas), Marquette (Omaha), Depaul (Lehigh)
The new Big East got a lot of hype early on during as the Thanksgiving tournaments were happening due to strong performances there, but they've fallen off a bit, not so much for losing to the dregs of DI but more for losing to mediocre power conference teams like Georgia or Auburn...or the mere existence of Depaul's basketball program.
SEC (6):
Ole Miss (Charleston Southern, Western Kentucky), Mississippi State (Arkansas State, USC-Upstate), Auburn (Coastal Carolina), Missouri (UMKC)
The SEC has had a basketball conference as weak as its football conference is strong in recent years, but they've made a concerted effort to at least schedule more competitively out of conference. It's worked. The SEC has the #1 SOS so far in 2014-15. Ole Miss is surprising to see on the list, especially with two games to its discredit, as they were thought to be a middle of the pack team, but at least the other three schools on this list were all known to be deep in the rebuilding phase.
PAC-12 (7):
USC (Army, Portland State), Washington (Stony Brook), Arizona State (Lehigh), California (Cal State-Bakersfield), Oregon State (Quinnipiac), Washington State (Idaho)
Rough Sunday night for the Pac-12 with Washington falling from the ranks of the unbeatens against Stony Brook (who came all the way from New York) and Cal dropping one to an in-state school. For as much as you think the RPI is worth, the Pac-12 is closer to the A10 than any of the other conferences listed here. That's not entirely due to a few bad losses, but aside from heavy favorite Arizona, only Utah has put itself in really strong position going into conference play.
Big Ten (10):
Michigan State (Texas Southern), Indiana (Eastern Washington), Nebraska (Incarnate Word), Michigan (NJIT, Eastern Michigan), Purdue (Gardner-Webb, North Florida), Rutgers (St Peter's, St Francis PA), Northwestern (Central Michigan)
It's not so much the number of losses in this conference but who lost them. Indiana had a tumultuous offseason, but Michigan, Michigan State, and Nebraska were all ranked to start the year. Michigan State will still probably be fine, and Maryland, Minnesota and Illinois looks to fill the second tier vacuum instead of some of the teams above. The season hasn't been kind in general though, as the B1G is just 5th in the conference RPI rankings and 4th in kenpom's conference ranks - well below where they envisioned themselves this season.
ACC (11):
Miami (Eastern Kentucky, Green Bay), Virginia Tech (Radford, Appalachian State), Clemson (Winthrop, Gardner-Webb), Georgia Tech (USC-Upstate), NC State (Wofford), Wake Forest (Delaware State, Iona), Florida State (Northeastern)
I do revel a little bit in the difference between the ACC's self-proclamations and its reality so far. No question that Louisville, Duke, and Virginia is an awesome trio, but powers UNC and Syracuse (not pictured above) have been subpar so far and the bottom of the league continues to drag down a very strong top. Miami fell from the rankings due to its too losses above. Tough to punish them too much for a loss to Green Bay and Keifer Sykes, but losing by almost 30 at home to Eastern Kentucky is fairly shameful.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)