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| Here are the contenders... |
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| ...and the pretenders |
Saturday, March 7, 2015
Wednesday, February 25, 2015
Conference Title Hunting
Yesterday every Terps fan (or maybe just some of us) was doing mental gymnastics to parse all the scenarios that would get Maryland a top four seed and double bye in the Big Ten tournament in two weeks. That was the big one, and it's not easy with a half dozen teams still fighting for three spots. We were also hoping that Maryland would at least be competitive against #5 Wisconsin at the Xfinity Center. It's not that a loss was a sure thing, but rather given the teams uneven performance in the last month, we might have settled for sweeping Michigan, Rutgers and Nebraska to finish the season.
But since the Terps decided to go ahead and set off a flash mob, pack the lower bowl with gold, storm the court, and oh yeah, win last night's game, a beautifully played 59-53 win over the heavily favored Badgers, we can at least peak at their prospects for nabbing a share of the conference regular season championship. However faint those hopes are, they increased markedly last night, and given that we've shared just one regular season title since 2002, it's worth investigating.
As usual, we'll use kenpom's projections for each team's final three games. The caveat is that you can make a very compelling argument that Pomeroy is too bearish on the Terps. Despite a 23-5 record and a half dozen or more wins over likely NCAA Tournament teams, Maryland ranks just 35th in those rankings behind Ole Miss and Xavier and seemingly a cast of thousands. His rankings are clearly an outlier among major computer rankings, but hey, no sense splitting hairs too much.
Anyway,KP give Maryland an overwhelming chance of beating Michigan (81%) and winning at Rutgers (80%), and puts them as a solid favorite in Lincoln (64%). Here's the breakdown:
Not bad. Two wins clinches the bye, and speaking purely by the numbers, it would be a shocker if the Terps didn't get there.
Wisconsin's schedule was heavily backloaded, and their final three are much tougher. They get Michigan State next for Senior Night, their only game against the Spartans, and then next week has two road trips, one to feisty rival Minnesota and the other to Ohio State, the only game between the preseason presumptive top two in the Big Ten. Wisconsin still looks like a healthy favorite in the first two (82% and 75%), but the Ohio State game is much closer to a coin flip (54%).
Two wins clinches an outright B1G title for Wiscy, so you can probably already tell that Maryland isn't at even odds. There are three scenarios that work for Maryland. If the Terps sweep, Wisconsin can win either one more or none (for an unlikely outright B1G title) or if the Terps drop one than Wisconsin has to lose all three. The realistic scenario is Maryland at 3-0 and Wisconsin at 1-2.
So yeah, put it all together and Maryland has a 9.25% chance to do it. Let's say it's 1 in 10 and call it day. Those certainly not great odds, but they also aren't zero, which is amazing to say on February 25. It's safe to say that the preseason prediction of 10th in the Big Ten was a little off base.
But since the Terps decided to go ahead and set off a flash mob, pack the lower bowl with gold, storm the court, and oh yeah, win last night's game, a beautifully played 59-53 win over the heavily favored Badgers, we can at least peak at their prospects for nabbing a share of the conference regular season championship. However faint those hopes are, they increased markedly last night, and given that we've shared just one regular season title since 2002, it's worth investigating.
As usual, we'll use kenpom's projections for each team's final three games. The caveat is that you can make a very compelling argument that Pomeroy is too bearish on the Terps. Despite a 23-5 record and a half dozen or more wins over likely NCAA Tournament teams, Maryland ranks just 35th in those rankings behind Ole Miss and Xavier and seemingly a cast of thousands. His rankings are clearly an outlier among major computer rankings, but hey, no sense splitting hairs too much.
Anyway,KP give Maryland an overwhelming chance of beating Michigan (81%) and winning at Rutgers (80%), and puts them as a solid favorite in Lincoln (64%). Here's the breakdown:
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| Maryland's Last Three games |
Not bad. Two wins clinches the bye, and speaking purely by the numbers, it would be a shocker if the Terps didn't get there.
Wisconsin's schedule was heavily backloaded, and their final three are much tougher. They get Michigan State next for Senior Night, their only game against the Spartans, and then next week has two road trips, one to feisty rival Minnesota and the other to Ohio State, the only game between the preseason presumptive top two in the Big Ten. Wisconsin still looks like a healthy favorite in the first two (82% and 75%), but the Ohio State game is much closer to a coin flip (54%).
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| Wisconsin's Last Three Games |
Two wins clinches an outright B1G title for Wiscy, so you can probably already tell that Maryland isn't at even odds. There are three scenarios that work for Maryland. If the Terps sweep, Wisconsin can win either one more or none (for an unlikely outright B1G title) or if the Terps drop one than Wisconsin has to lose all three. The realistic scenario is Maryland at 3-0 and Wisconsin at 1-2.
So yeah, put it all together and Maryland has a 9.25% chance to do it. Let's say it's 1 in 10 and call it day. Those certainly not great odds, but they also aren't zero, which is amazing to say on February 25. It's safe to say that the preseason prediction of 10th in the Big Ten was a little off base.
Saturday, February 21, 2015
Historic Start?
In the rich history of Maryland basketball, only four teams have started better than this year's edition. The best start was the National Championship team at 24-3, which dropped its season opener before going on to win 26 of its next 28. Three teams won 23 games: the Steve Francis-led 1999 team which would eventually grab a #2 seed in the NCAA tournament, the third-ranked 1974 team that lost the Greatest Game Ever Played to NC State to miss the NCAA Tournament, and 1975 team that made it to the Elite Eight as the ACC's first-ever at-large participant in March Madness after the rule had been changed following the 1974 season.
The games have been closer than we'd probably like, and the team may still be a year away from being a true national contender, but there's no question it's been a fun ride.
1. 24-3, 2002
2. 23-4, 1999
2. 23-4, 1975
2. 23-4, 1974
5. 22-5, 2015
5. 22-5, 1995
5. 22-5, 1976
5 .22-5, 1973
10. 21-6, 1980
10. 21-6, 1958
10. 21-6, 1954
12. 20-7, 2010
12. 20-7, 2006
12. 20-7, 2000
12. 20-7, 1984
The games have been closer than we'd probably like, and the team may still be a year away from being a true national contender, but there's no question it's been a fun ride.
1. 24-3, 2002
2. 23-4, 1999
2. 23-4, 1975
2. 23-4, 1974
5. 22-5, 2015
5. 22-5, 1995
5. 22-5, 1976
5 .22-5, 1973
10. 21-6, 1980
10. 21-6, 1958
10. 21-6, 1954
12. 20-7, 2010
12. 20-7, 2006
12. 20-7, 2000
12. 20-7, 1984
Tuesday, February 17, 2015
Entering the Final Five
*Five points separated Maryland from two wins and two overtime games last week, but once again, luck - and those five points - were on the Terps side as they escaped with a two point home win over Indiana and a three point win at Penn State. The performances continued to be uneven, but for resume, seeding, and conference standing purposes, it was an enormous week, no different than if the team had come out and ripped both teams. The soft second-half conference continues, with only a home date against Wisconsin left as far as potential NCAA tournaments.
Wisconsin currently reigns over the B1G at 11-1, but a tough closing stretch (trips to Maryland and Ohio State, Michigan State at the Kohl Center, and a home and home against feisty Minnesota) give some measure of hope for someone - likely Maryland or Michigan State - to snare a piece of the conference championship.
The Terps would almost certainly need to sweep the final five games which is unlikely. They'll be favored in four of those games, but are likely to be a healthy underdog to the Badgers, even at home. A look at the most likely scenarios (percentages derived from current kenpom ratings):
There are theoretically 32 combinations of wins and losses left, and the clean sweep is the third most likely at 1-in-10, but still slightly less likely than losing the Wiscy game and adding a loss at Nebraska to close the season. 12 wins seems like the magic number for a bye in the B1G tournament, and the efficiency metrics have Maryland at over 80% to get there, including about 43% to take four or more.
*An interesting battle is shaping up for all-conference honors. Frank Kaminsky and D'Angelo Russell are locks for the 1st Team, and I'd bet on D.J. Newbill despite Penn State finishing near the conference bottom. That leaves two spots up for grabs from the group of Melo Trimble, Yogi Ferrell, Terran Pettway, Aaron White, and perhaps James Blackmon.
After a tough stretch, I'll bet on Melo here. Trimble has 58 points in the past three games on outstanding shooting numbers: 17-30 from the floor, 5-9 from three, and 19-21 at the line. Trimble still leads major conference players in FTM this year, by a fair bit:
Wisconsin currently reigns over the B1G at 11-1, but a tough closing stretch (trips to Maryland and Ohio State, Michigan State at the Kohl Center, and a home and home against feisty Minnesota) give some measure of hope for someone - likely Maryland or Michigan State - to snare a piece of the conference championship.
The Terps would almost certainly need to sweep the final five games which is unlikely. They'll be favored in four of those games, but are likely to be a healthy underdog to the Badgers, even at home. A look at the most likely scenarios (percentages derived from current kenpom ratings):
There are theoretically 32 combinations of wins and losses left, and the clean sweep is the third most likely at 1-in-10, but still slightly less likely than losing the Wiscy game and adding a loss at Nebraska to close the season. 12 wins seems like the magic number for a bye in the B1G tournament, and the efficiency metrics have Maryland at over 80% to get there, including about 43% to take four or more.
*An interesting battle is shaping up for all-conference honors. Frank Kaminsky and D'Angelo Russell are locks for the 1st Team, and I'd bet on D.J. Newbill despite Penn State finishing near the conference bottom. That leaves two spots up for grabs from the group of Melo Trimble, Yogi Ferrell, Terran Pettway, Aaron White, and perhaps James Blackmon.
After a tough stretch, I'll bet on Melo here. Trimble has 58 points in the past three games on outstanding shooting numbers: 17-30 from the floor, 5-9 from three, and 19-21 at the line. Trimble still leads major conference players in FTM this year, by a fair bit:
- Melo Trimble, MD - 157
- Billy Garrett, Jr, DEP - 142
- Aaron White, IOWA - 140
- D'Angelo Harrison, SJU - 137
- Le'Bryan Nash, OKST - 135
Thursday, February 5, 2015
The Top Ten - #Coaching Hot Takes 2015
And finally, mercifully, we get to the top ten.
10. Mike Krzyzewski, Duke (4-21-6-13-8): Coach K may live forever and coach Duke to more championships just to spite all of his haters. It seems improbable, but K may not be of this species. If that isn't true though, Coach K turns 68 next week. Duke is consistently one of the best teams in the country, but rarely the best anymore. Duke won conference regular season and tournament titles plus the NCAA championship in 2010, but in the last eight years, those accomplishments mark Duke's only conference titles and only Final Four appearances, compared to the 18 times Duke grabbed one of those honors in the decade prior. The program has also famously lost to Mercer and Lehigh in the first round in March in the past three years. Recruits still flock to Duke, but at this point it's a brand that sells itself. Not to diminish K too far, but his own personal cache as a coach likely doesn't translate 100% at a new school. You can't imagine the guy ever dipping below 25-10, but that's where we're at on this list.
9. Shaka Smart, VCU (42-38-20-17-20): Shaka is probably the hottest commodity in coaching. He's pledged his loyalty to VCU the past couple off-seasons, but almost every power conference job that opens will either a) generate news reports linking Smart to the opening or b) generate message board speculation that Smart is interested. Smart made his name going to the Final Four and then solidified his standing with continued winning and his trademark Havoc defense. He's great. But (and you knew there would be), he's never or shared a conference regular season title and has one tournament championship in five years. He's the same age as Josh Pastner and has a career record that's percentage points different. That's a simplistic comparison, but then Smart is so much higher. His teams are terrific, but I want to see a conference championship and a run back to the tournament's second weekend.
8. Tony Bennett, Virginia (99-33-40-4-2): I don't like Bennett's style. Slow and conservative is a good style when you're the hunter, but maybe not so much as the hunted. There's no denying the success that UVA has had the past two years under Bennett, though. They haven't been relevant since Ralph Sampson was on campus, and these teams have no Ralph Sampson. With only one senior Bennett is well positioned for a third straight outstanding team next year. Up now: deep runs in the tournament. Snagging a top recruit would be a good look, too.
7. Tom Izzo, Michigan State (46-3-9-9-23): Izzo's consistency is remarkable. 17 straight seasons Michigan State has made the NCAA Tournament, and in all 19 of his seasons as a head coach the Spartans have been .500 or better in league games. Six final fours and a national championship. Recruiting has tailed off a bit recently for Izzo. He's always had the rep of a "more with less" guy, but his current roster probably has no NBA players on it. That's a huge problem when we're this high on the list.
6. Sean Miller, Arizona (23-52-13-2-3): Quickly becoming the guy with the "best never to make a Final Four" tag, if he's not there already. It's mostly meant as an insult but the reality is that it says something about how good of a coach you are, especially in Miller's case where he's been to three Regional Finals, losing the last two at Arizona in heartbreaking fashion. Miller is a top three or four recruiter in college basketball, and his coaching acumen has never really been questioned. It's his time to break out.
5. Rick Pitino, Louisville (12-14-1-1-10): What is going on with Pitino's look? The white suit and five o'clock shadow isn't a good one. Imagine if Pitino didn't have those two stints in the NBA. Just getting back the four years after he left Kentucky and was out of the college game puts him over 800 wins and in position to get to 1,000 himself. Currently working on his 8th top 5 finish in adjusted defensive efficiency. Complaints? Maybe that following Russ Smith with Chris Jones as your lead guard is a bit much to avoid seasickness, but that's a reach. Eligible for AARP so I can't put him any higher.
4. Thad Matta, Ohio State (1-2-7-20-17): Matta's been around for ages, but he's still only 47. He doesn't have a championship yet, but he's played for one and taken two completely different groups to the Final Four. His teams have six #1 or #2 seeds. Matta has done work recruiting his immediate area. He grabbed Greg Oden from Indianapolis and D'Angelo Russell from Louisville. Both are about three hours west, and Matta has mostly landed his top players from within that narrow window. He'll win a title.
3. Billy Donovan, Florida (16-11-2-3-37): Billy the Kid is still just shy of 50 and still has the two championship rings on his fingers. Donovan built Florida basketball. He's probably the only guy on this list who can say that. Before he came to Gainesville, Florida there was nothing. You can measure their program accomplishments B.D. (before Donovan) and A.D. (after Donovan). Before: 3 NCAA tournaments, 7 tournament wins, 6 NBA players. After: 14 NCAA tournaments, 35 tournament wins, 19 NBA players. Went 36-3 and to the Final Four last year with a roster led by four seniors, none of whom were drafted last spring. Underrated.
2. Bill Self, Kansas (2-4-8-12-11): It was supposed to be a little bit of a down year for Kansas this year. Embiid and Wiggins left for the draft and maybe Bill Self and co. would take a second to reload. Nope. After some rough patches early, KU is set to get its 11th straight conference regular season title, this one in the consensus best league in America. I love that Self loads up Kansas' schedule every year in November and December. Even with one of the youngest rosters in college basketball, Kansas played the toughest early season slate by far. The losses to Bucknell and Bradley are a distant memory, but Self needs a couple more Final Fours to truly cement his place as an all-timer. He's only got two, and a 2-5 record in the Elite Eight won't excite many people.
1. John Calipari, Kentucky (5-1-67-11-1): Who else? Love him, hate him, whatever, he's on a different level. Cal is playing chess while everyone else is playing checkers. He's that guy playing three games of speed chess at once. He won't always win, and a disappointing 2013 followed by a disappointing 2014 regular season looked like it would expose cracks in his style, but UK roared back in last year's tournament. His talent level at Kentucky is absolutely obscene. There's not much more to be said about Calipari. Barring a scandal, Kentucky is the top dog for the foreseeable future by a lot, and Calipari reigns supreme.
10. Mike Krzyzewski, Duke (4-21-6-13-8): Coach K may live forever and coach Duke to more championships just to spite all of his haters. It seems improbable, but K may not be of this species. If that isn't true though, Coach K turns 68 next week. Duke is consistently one of the best teams in the country, but rarely the best anymore. Duke won conference regular season and tournament titles plus the NCAA championship in 2010, but in the last eight years, those accomplishments mark Duke's only conference titles and only Final Four appearances, compared to the 18 times Duke grabbed one of those honors in the decade prior. The program has also famously lost to Mercer and Lehigh in the first round in March in the past three years. Recruits still flock to Duke, but at this point it's a brand that sells itself. Not to diminish K too far, but his own personal cache as a coach likely doesn't translate 100% at a new school. You can't imagine the guy ever dipping below 25-10, but that's where we're at on this list.
9. Shaka Smart, VCU (42-38-20-17-20): Shaka is probably the hottest commodity in coaching. He's pledged his loyalty to VCU the past couple off-seasons, but almost every power conference job that opens will either a) generate news reports linking Smart to the opening or b) generate message board speculation that Smart is interested. Smart made his name going to the Final Four and then solidified his standing with continued winning and his trademark Havoc defense. He's great. But (and you knew there would be), he's never or shared a conference regular season title and has one tournament championship in five years. He's the same age as Josh Pastner and has a career record that's percentage points different. That's a simplistic comparison, but then Smart is so much higher. His teams are terrific, but I want to see a conference championship and a run back to the tournament's second weekend.
8. Tony Bennett, Virginia (99-33-40-4-2): I don't like Bennett's style. Slow and conservative is a good style when you're the hunter, but maybe not so much as the hunted. There's no denying the success that UVA has had the past two years under Bennett, though. They haven't been relevant since Ralph Sampson was on campus, and these teams have no Ralph Sampson. With only one senior Bennett is well positioned for a third straight outstanding team next year. Up now: deep runs in the tournament. Snagging a top recruit would be a good look, too.
7. Tom Izzo, Michigan State (46-3-9-9-23): Izzo's consistency is remarkable. 17 straight seasons Michigan State has made the NCAA Tournament, and in all 19 of his seasons as a head coach the Spartans have been .500 or better in league games. Six final fours and a national championship. Recruiting has tailed off a bit recently for Izzo. He's always had the rep of a "more with less" guy, but his current roster probably has no NBA players on it. That's a huge problem when we're this high on the list.
6. Sean Miller, Arizona (23-52-13-2-3): Quickly becoming the guy with the "best never to make a Final Four" tag, if he's not there already. It's mostly meant as an insult but the reality is that it says something about how good of a coach you are, especially in Miller's case where he's been to three Regional Finals, losing the last two at Arizona in heartbreaking fashion. Miller is a top three or four recruiter in college basketball, and his coaching acumen has never really been questioned. It's his time to break out.
5. Rick Pitino, Louisville (12-14-1-1-10): What is going on with Pitino's look? The white suit and five o'clock shadow isn't a good one. Imagine if Pitino didn't have those two stints in the NBA. Just getting back the four years after he left Kentucky and was out of the college game puts him over 800 wins and in position to get to 1,000 himself. Currently working on his 8th top 5 finish in adjusted defensive efficiency. Complaints? Maybe that following Russ Smith with Chris Jones as your lead guard is a bit much to avoid seasickness, but that's a reach. Eligible for AARP so I can't put him any higher.
4. Thad Matta, Ohio State (1-2-7-20-17): Matta's been around for ages, but he's still only 47. He doesn't have a championship yet, but he's played for one and taken two completely different groups to the Final Four. His teams have six #1 or #2 seeds. Matta has done work recruiting his immediate area. He grabbed Greg Oden from Indianapolis and D'Angelo Russell from Louisville. Both are about three hours west, and Matta has mostly landed his top players from within that narrow window. He'll win a title.
3. Billy Donovan, Florida (16-11-2-3-37): Billy the Kid is still just shy of 50 and still has the two championship rings on his fingers. Donovan built Florida basketball. He's probably the only guy on this list who can say that. Before he came to Gainesville, Florida there was nothing. You can measure their program accomplishments B.D. (before Donovan) and A.D. (after Donovan). Before: 3 NCAA tournaments, 7 tournament wins, 6 NBA players. After: 14 NCAA tournaments, 35 tournament wins, 19 NBA players. Went 36-3 and to the Final Four last year with a roster led by four seniors, none of whom were drafted last spring. Underrated.
2. Bill Self, Kansas (2-4-8-12-11): It was supposed to be a little bit of a down year for Kansas this year. Embiid and Wiggins left for the draft and maybe Bill Self and co. would take a second to reload. Nope. After some rough patches early, KU is set to get its 11th straight conference regular season title, this one in the consensus best league in America. I love that Self loads up Kansas' schedule every year in November and December. Even with one of the youngest rosters in college basketball, Kansas played the toughest early season slate by far. The losses to Bucknell and Bradley are a distant memory, but Self needs a couple more Final Fours to truly cement his place as an all-timer. He's only got two, and a 2-5 record in the Elite Eight won't excite many people.
1. John Calipari, Kentucky (5-1-67-11-1): Who else? Love him, hate him, whatever, he's on a different level. Cal is playing chess while everyone else is playing checkers. He's that guy playing three games of speed chess at once. He won't always win, and a disappointing 2013 followed by a disappointing 2014 regular season looked like it would expose cracks in his style, but UK roared back in last year's tournament. His talent level at Kentucky is absolutely obscene. There's not much more to be said about Calipari. Barring a scandal, Kentucky is the top dog for the foreseeable future by a lot, and Calipari reigns supreme.
Monday, February 2, 2015
2015 Coaching Hot Takes - The Top 25
25. Buzz Williams, Virginia Tech (30-18-24-76-160): Buzz once did this, which was pretty incredible. I'm not sold on him though. He had a lot of success at Marquette, but his last team there wasn't very good at all. The roster he left behind wasn't, either. And the fact that he left them for Virginia Tech was an...interesting move. I could see not being sold on Marquette as a destination, but shouldn't a very top coach have a better option? Maybe that's just the negative view. Never finishing below .500 in the Big East in 6 years is a feat, and he's already started to accrue talent in Blacksburg.
24. Mark Turgeon, Maryland (49-128-48-40-32): There is no chance I would pick Mike Brey over Mark Turgeon, so that alone puts Turge here. I also can't put Turgeon anywhere near the elite until he makes more than zero NCAA Tournaments at Maryland. That will happen this year, but to move higher on the list Turgeon needs to show that he's building a program. The recruiting has been great on paper, but not so much on the results. He lost five transfers last offseason and has five of his own on the roster. Transfer happen in modern college basketball, but it's a worrying number for a major college program. The class of 2014 looks outstanding, but then so did the class of 2012 at this point in its first season. Time will tell, and next year's team could be special.
23. Rick Barnes, Texas (): Does Rick Barnes put "recruited Kevin Durant" on his resume if he's out looking for a job? That seems like it would inevitably lead to thorny questions like why they were 24th in adjusted efficiency rankings and why they got hammered in the 2nd round of the NCAA Tournament that year. That's the cynical view on Barnes that many take, ignoring that the Durant year was sandwiched between two 30+ win, Elite Eight campaigns. Barnes missed the tournament just once since 1996 and it almost got him fired, so maybe that's just his lot in life. He's another coach that's been beset by roster turnover in recent years, but there's still talent on the roster. He's also seemingly avoided even a whiff of sanctions or impropriety which shows either impressive adherence to the rules or impressive discretion given his long tenure. And I'm not sure that one is better than the other.
22. Bo Ryan, Wisconsin (8-7-13-6-5): Bo Ryan absolutely ranks first on the list of coaches who look most like their school's mascot. Put a red and white sweater on the guy and you can't tell the difference between him and Bucky the Badger. Ryan is a high floor coach (10 seasons of 24+ wins in 14 years in Madison) and the past couple years have shown that he can coach an elite team, if there was any doubt before. Ryan also isn't young at 67 and hasn't coached outside of Wisconsin since 1976. He's had few top recruits, and his offense, though deadly efficient, probably won't excite many recruits. Hire Ryan and go 23-11 in a bad season, but things probably have to break exactly right for him to put together a top five team. See: Kaminsky, Frank.
21. Ed Cooley, Providence (100-112-70-51-52): I like the guy. He's had success on the court and the recruiting trail in his time at Providence. It's easy to forget how much PC isn't a power. They were an original Big East team (thanks, Dave Gavitt), but only had six winning seasons in league play in the 32 years of the "old" Big East. Rick Barnes had one in six years before hopping to Clemson. Pete Gillen had one in four years before bolting to UVA. Rick Pitino went to the NBA after one good (great) season in Providence. All of which is to say that it's not easy to win at a private school in the country's smallest state. Cooley has done that so far and could be in line for bigger things soon.
20. Tom Crean, Indiana (81-10-3-67-50): Crean is fast becoming either the best bad coach or the worst good coach in the country. Four months ago you could read an article or message board post about Crean and probably see the phrase "losing control of the program". Ouch. Cody Zeller and Victor Oladipo, the guys that rebuilt Indiana, left campus with only a Sweet 16 and Noah Vonleh, the next top recruit left with far less. Crean has two NCAA appearances in 6 years at Indiana, and no guarantee for a third yet this year. Crean walked into a program with a bare roster, but at some point he's living off of a Final Four run with Dwyane Wade from 12 years ago.
19. Bruce Pearl, Auburn (13-38-26-63-150): Ten years as a DI head coach at Milwaukee and Tennessee. Eight NCAA tournament appearances, a .725 conference winning percentage, and one show cause penalty. If you believe that "it's not the crime, it's the coverup", that probably applies to Pearl. The violations on their own were innocuous by the standards of the Wild West of college sports recruiting, but Pearl lied and spent a couple years in purgatory (Bristol, CT) before landing back at Auburn. Pearl didn't waste much time pulling whatever talent he could to Auburn, grabbing Trayvon Reed weeks after being kicked out of Maryland, plus KC Ross-Miller, who fought some fans last year. He'll win games, but caveat emptor.
18. John Thompson III, Georgetown (36-16-12-65-21): John, at some point you need to stop embarrassing yourself in March. A lot of people criticize the Princeton offense for being slow and boring to watch, but to me, the reason it's never made sense for a team like Georgetown is that they recruit so well and almost always have at least as much skill as the other team. Slowing the game down and playing like, well, Princeton probably keeps some lesser teams in the game. Back at the end of the last decade, Hoya Paranoia looked like it was back in full force with a Final Four and a seemingly endless supply of top recruits, many of them from talent-rich DC. Georgetown is still in fine shape, but the local recruiting has tapered off a bit and the March losses have turned the narrative around. JT III stays high on the list at least in part because of who his father is and which shoe company that man has deep connections with.
17. Jay Wright, Villanova (34-84-46-14-8): Jay Wright is so close to being elite, but there's something missing. He recruits at a high level. He's had good offensive and good defensive teams, often in the same year. He's broken through to the Final Four once already. He still young at 53. I don't know that it's fair to say that he hasn't done enough with his talent, but here's some food for thought. By my count, using the RSCI composite rankings, Wright has coached 5 top 25 recruits and 12 top 50 recruits, but only 5 guys who played in the NBA. I should probably look into the numbers a little more, but that doesn't feel like a lot. Seems fitting for a coach is just right there, but not quite over the hump.
16. John Beilein, Michigan (26-23-4-10-76): Michigan's 2013 NCAA runner-up had more NBA players (six, assuming Caris Levert makes it) than the Fab Five teams. Beilein has a rep as someone who does more with less, but at Michigan he's started to do more with more. Or, at least this year, less with more. But the point is that Beilein actually does a pretty good of bringing high quality players to campus. He's also shed the March choker label, which is such a weird thing for a guy who famously took a less talented team on paper at West Virginia to the cusp of the Final Four.
15. Gregg Marshall, Wichita State (25-13-17-5-14): Alright, it's time to move on, Gregg. Marshall is now on his fourth or fifth excellent team in a row at Wichita State. 2013 was the Final Four team and who knows where last year's 35-1 team would have ended up if not for running into Kentucky's House of Flying Daggers tournament run last year. Last year's team, as excellent as it was, only beat two NCAA tournament teams all season before March Madness tipped off. In a lot of ways putting together this run at Wichita is more impressive than doing it at a higher level, but I want to see Marshall mix it up on the court and the recruiting trail with the real heavyweights. No disrespect to Northern Iowa, but that's not a worthy. Where does Marshall want to go? Does he want to be the next Mark Few? Maybe we find out after Rob Baker and Fred Van Vleet graduate next year.
14. Roy Williams, North Carolina (14-6-32-27-12): Never been a fan of Roy Williams. He's won at phenomenal levels but he's done it at Kansas and North Carolina, two of the most storied programs in country. He's shed any questions about his tournament bona fides by winning two titles in Chapel Hill. But I look at his roster and see no shooters for the second straight year. This is at UNC, where he should (and can) get any recruit in the country to listen. First six years at Carolina, average offensive rating: 5th. Second six years at Carolina, average offensive rating: 42. He's always relied on an up and down offensive style with traditional bigs, eschewing the three point shot, and you wonder if maybe we're too the point that it isn't a recipe for a great offensive team. Plus there are those nasty rumors of massive academic fraud.
13. Fred Hoiberg, Iowa State (84-24-27-21-23): The Mayor. Transfer U. Relying on a new crop of transfers every year has to be like walking a tightrope. After Hoiberg took Deandre Kane from a disgruntled guy that basically got run off the team at Marshall to an All-American at Iowa State in the span of an offseason nothing seemed impossible. I personally love that Hoiberg plays uptempo and always seems to find itself in some of the most entertaining games of the week. Since he's locked in for eight years in our hypothetical #hottakes rankings, that puts to rest the constant talk that Hoiberg will find his way back to the NBA as a head coach there. He's a rising star, super young and working on a fourth straight NCAA tournament, but I want to see one good defensive team and a couple great high school recruits before he rises further.
12. Scott Drew, Baylor (87-15-29-25-13): Drew took over Baylor when they were not only terrible on the court but also dealing with the immediate aftermath of the Dave Bliss fiasco. The NCAA doesn't give the death penalty anymore so knocking out Baylor's entire non conference season is as close as a team will get. Drew once got a lot of support from his "peers" as one of the sport's biggest cheaters, and two years later the program found itself in hot water for text messages, phone calls - the standard violations. He's also had a weird trend of only making the tournament in even years, but that will end this season. A pair of Elite Eights and three trips to the second weekend in the times he's made it are good accomplishments for a 44 year old.
11. Mark Few, Gonzaga (35-20-5-22-4): Ah, Mark. You coach at a small Catholic school in Spokane, Washington and people call you overrated when you only win one tournament game every. single. year. He's coached nine pros and has at least a couple more on the roster now. And seriously, he's 12-3 in the first round of the NCAA tournament and has yet to miss one. Few gets dinged points for being at Gonzaga since 1989. Maybe it's just the perfect storm for him that wouldn't translate if he had to build a program somewhere else.
24. Mark Turgeon, Maryland (49-128-48-40-32): There is no chance I would pick Mike Brey over Mark Turgeon, so that alone puts Turge here. I also can't put Turgeon anywhere near the elite until he makes more than zero NCAA Tournaments at Maryland. That will happen this year, but to move higher on the list Turgeon needs to show that he's building a program. The recruiting has been great on paper, but not so much on the results. He lost five transfers last offseason and has five of his own on the roster. Transfer happen in modern college basketball, but it's a worrying number for a major college program. The class of 2014 looks outstanding, but then so did the class of 2012 at this point in its first season. Time will tell, and next year's team could be special.
23. Rick Barnes, Texas (): Does Rick Barnes put "recruited Kevin Durant" on his resume if he's out looking for a job? That seems like it would inevitably lead to thorny questions like why they were 24th in adjusted efficiency rankings and why they got hammered in the 2nd round of the NCAA Tournament that year. That's the cynical view on Barnes that many take, ignoring that the Durant year was sandwiched between two 30+ win, Elite Eight campaigns. Barnes missed the tournament just once since 1996 and it almost got him fired, so maybe that's just his lot in life. He's another coach that's been beset by roster turnover in recent years, but there's still talent on the roster. He's also seemingly avoided even a whiff of sanctions or impropriety which shows either impressive adherence to the rules or impressive discretion given his long tenure. And I'm not sure that one is better than the other.
22. Bo Ryan, Wisconsin (8-7-13-6-5): Bo Ryan absolutely ranks first on the list of coaches who look most like their school's mascot. Put a red and white sweater on the guy and you can't tell the difference between him and Bucky the Badger. Ryan is a high floor coach (10 seasons of 24+ wins in 14 years in Madison) and the past couple years have shown that he can coach an elite team, if there was any doubt before. Ryan also isn't young at 67 and hasn't coached outside of Wisconsin since 1976. He's had few top recruits, and his offense, though deadly efficient, probably won't excite many recruits. Hire Ryan and go 23-11 in a bad season, but things probably have to break exactly right for him to put together a top five team. See: Kaminsky, Frank.
21. Ed Cooley, Providence (100-112-70-51-52): I like the guy. He's had success on the court and the recruiting trail in his time at Providence. It's easy to forget how much PC isn't a power. They were an original Big East team (thanks, Dave Gavitt), but only had six winning seasons in league play in the 32 years of the "old" Big East. Rick Barnes had one in six years before hopping to Clemson. Pete Gillen had one in four years before bolting to UVA. Rick Pitino went to the NBA after one good (great) season in Providence. All of which is to say that it's not easy to win at a private school in the country's smallest state. Cooley has done that so far and could be in line for bigger things soon.
20. Tom Crean, Indiana (81-10-3-67-50): Crean is fast becoming either the best bad coach or the worst good coach in the country. Four months ago you could read an article or message board post about Crean and probably see the phrase "losing control of the program". Ouch. Cody Zeller and Victor Oladipo, the guys that rebuilt Indiana, left campus with only a Sweet 16 and Noah Vonleh, the next top recruit left with far less. Crean has two NCAA appearances in 6 years at Indiana, and no guarantee for a third yet this year. Crean walked into a program with a bare roster, but at some point he's living off of a Final Four run with Dwyane Wade from 12 years ago.
19. Bruce Pearl, Auburn (13-38-26-63-150): Ten years as a DI head coach at Milwaukee and Tennessee. Eight NCAA tournament appearances, a .725 conference winning percentage, and one show cause penalty. If you believe that "it's not the crime, it's the coverup", that probably applies to Pearl. The violations on their own were innocuous by the standards of the Wild West of college sports recruiting, but Pearl lied and spent a couple years in purgatory (Bristol, CT) before landing back at Auburn. Pearl didn't waste much time pulling whatever talent he could to Auburn, grabbing Trayvon Reed weeks after being kicked out of Maryland, plus KC Ross-Miller, who fought some fans last year. He'll win games, but caveat emptor.
18. John Thompson III, Georgetown (36-16-12-65-21): John, at some point you need to stop embarrassing yourself in March. A lot of people criticize the Princeton offense for being slow and boring to watch, but to me, the reason it's never made sense for a team like Georgetown is that they recruit so well and almost always have at least as much skill as the other team. Slowing the game down and playing like, well, Princeton probably keeps some lesser teams in the game. Back at the end of the last decade, Hoya Paranoia looked like it was back in full force with a Final Four and a seemingly endless supply of top recruits, many of them from talent-rich DC. Georgetown is still in fine shape, but the local recruiting has tapered off a bit and the March losses have turned the narrative around. JT III stays high on the list at least in part because of who his father is and which shoe company that man has deep connections with.
17. Jay Wright, Villanova (34-84-46-14-8): Jay Wright is so close to being elite, but there's something missing. He recruits at a high level. He's had good offensive and good defensive teams, often in the same year. He's broken through to the Final Four once already. He still young at 53. I don't know that it's fair to say that he hasn't done enough with his talent, but here's some food for thought. By my count, using the RSCI composite rankings, Wright has coached 5 top 25 recruits and 12 top 50 recruits, but only 5 guys who played in the NBA. I should probably look into the numbers a little more, but that doesn't feel like a lot. Seems fitting for a coach is just right there, but not quite over the hump.
16. John Beilein, Michigan (26-23-4-10-76): Michigan's 2013 NCAA runner-up had more NBA players (six, assuming Caris Levert makes it) than the Fab Five teams. Beilein has a rep as someone who does more with less, but at Michigan he's started to do more with more. Or, at least this year, less with more. But the point is that Beilein actually does a pretty good of bringing high quality players to campus. He's also shed the March choker label, which is such a weird thing for a guy who famously took a less talented team on paper at West Virginia to the cusp of the Final Four.
15. Gregg Marshall, Wichita State (25-13-17-5-14): Alright, it's time to move on, Gregg. Marshall is now on his fourth or fifth excellent team in a row at Wichita State. 2013 was the Final Four team and who knows where last year's 35-1 team would have ended up if not for running into Kentucky's House of Flying Daggers tournament run last year. Last year's team, as excellent as it was, only beat two NCAA tournament teams all season before March Madness tipped off. In a lot of ways putting together this run at Wichita is more impressive than doing it at a higher level, but I want to see Marshall mix it up on the court and the recruiting trail with the real heavyweights. No disrespect to Northern Iowa, but that's not a worthy. Where does Marshall want to go? Does he want to be the next Mark Few? Maybe we find out after Rob Baker and Fred Van Vleet graduate next year.
14. Roy Williams, North Carolina (14-6-32-27-12): Never been a fan of Roy Williams. He's won at phenomenal levels but he's done it at Kansas and North Carolina, two of the most storied programs in country. He's shed any questions about his tournament bona fides by winning two titles in Chapel Hill. But I look at his roster and see no shooters for the second straight year. This is at UNC, where he should (and can) get any recruit in the country to listen. First six years at Carolina, average offensive rating: 5th. Second six years at Carolina, average offensive rating: 42. He's always relied on an up and down offensive style with traditional bigs, eschewing the three point shot, and you wonder if maybe we're too the point that it isn't a recipe for a great offensive team. Plus there are those nasty rumors of massive academic fraud.
13. Fred Hoiberg, Iowa State (84-24-27-21-23): The Mayor. Transfer U. Relying on a new crop of transfers every year has to be like walking a tightrope. After Hoiberg took Deandre Kane from a disgruntled guy that basically got run off the team at Marshall to an All-American at Iowa State in the span of an offseason nothing seemed impossible. I personally love that Hoiberg plays uptempo and always seems to find itself in some of the most entertaining games of the week. Since he's locked in for eight years in our hypothetical #hottakes rankings, that puts to rest the constant talk that Hoiberg will find his way back to the NBA as a head coach there. He's a rising star, super young and working on a fourth straight NCAA tournament, but I want to see one good defensive team and a couple great high school recruits before he rises further.
12. Scott Drew, Baylor (87-15-29-25-13): Drew took over Baylor when they were not only terrible on the court but also dealing with the immediate aftermath of the Dave Bliss fiasco. The NCAA doesn't give the death penalty anymore so knocking out Baylor's entire non conference season is as close as a team will get. Drew once got a lot of support from his "peers" as one of the sport's biggest cheaters, and two years later the program found itself in hot water for text messages, phone calls - the standard violations. He's also had a weird trend of only making the tournament in even years, but that will end this season. A pair of Elite Eights and three trips to the second weekend in the times he's made it are good accomplishments for a 44 year old.
11. Mark Few, Gonzaga (35-20-5-22-4): Ah, Mark. You coach at a small Catholic school in Spokane, Washington and people call you overrated when you only win one tournament game every. single. year. He's coached nine pros and has at least a couple more on the roster now. And seriously, he's 12-3 in the first round of the NCAA tournament and has yet to miss one. Few gets dinged points for being at Gonzaga since 1989. Maybe it's just the perfect storm for him that wouldn't translate if he had to build a program somewhere else.
Saturday, January 31, 2015
2015 Coaching #HotTakes - Part 5
38. Tad Boyle, Colorado (51-77-43-77-77): Before Boyle came to Boulder, the Buffs had just two NCAA tournament appearances in forty years. Four years later they've gone to three straight tournaments. You have to wonder whether Boyle was lucky to pluck Andre Roberson and Spencer Dinwiddie out of high school or if it was the other way around. Does Boyle have the ability to consistently mold less heralded high school recruits into winning teams? It's a tough job. You can't put Boyle much lower just because of the number of wins, but this type of coach needs to prove more before I can fully buy in.
37. Tim Miles, Nebraska (78-95-130-44-104): Miles has spent a long career going from place to place - five stops in 20 years as a head coach ranging from the NAIA up to Nebraska. He's got a lively social media presence on twitter, and in just two plus years in Lincoln he's done a lot to bring #nebrasketball into the lexicon of college hoops junkies. He's never won an NCAA tournament game, but his teams have shown continued improvement everywhere he's coached.
36. Jim Boeheim, Syracuse (15-5-10-16-70): There's no one in college basketball, not even his holiness down in Durham, who grates as much as Boeheim. It's amazing that if you google "Jim Boeheim whine", you get over twenty year's worth of links right on the first page or two. He's 70, so you might think that would have worn off by now, but nah uh. If you hire Boeheim, you're getting a "legend", but not a Coach K/Dean Smith type of legend. Boeheim is a winner, but he's still just a basketball coach.
35. Jim Larranaga, Miami (24-50-14-69-63): Everyone remembers the magical run nine years ago when Larranaga led George Mason to the final four, beating heavyweights and marking the first time in over 25 years that a "mid-major" team made it to the season's last weekend. What's more impressive to me is how consistently his teams at Mason won. In fourteen seasons as the program's head coach, only his first saw them finish under .500 in the conference. Then in 2013, in his second year at Miami, the Hurricanes swept the ACC regular season and tournament championships. And that's at a program where "also-ran" would be generous. After losing everyone from that team, he's already rebuilt Miami into a tournament contender again. The one negative is that he's 65. That's really too old for consideration near the top except for the giants of the game.
34. Andy Enfield, USC (170-93-163-155): Enfield's claim to fame is two wins in March, a pretty wife and a lot of dunks. That's sizzle. His next move is to show some substance. It's a win now world so Enfield becomes something of a forgotten man. We look at USC still loitering at the bottom of the Pac-12 and think "he hasn't done anything there yet", only to be reminded that this is year two and sometimes rebuilding doesn't happen overnight, regardless of how good you are. There's little question that Enfield was a good hire for USC precisely because that's a program that needs the sizzle, but at the highest levels, you'd have to wait and see, right?
33. Chris Mack, Xavier (39-48-77-59-22): I get the sense that Mack's star has probably fallen a little bit. Four years ago his team had won back to back A-10 regular season titles, three NCAA tournament games in two years and fifty games overall. The past two years the Musketeers had a tournament miss and then a trip to Dayton for the First Four (where they lost). Xavier is in the Big East now and has a sizeable fanbase. It's a program that expects to win. Mack has generally done a fine job of that, but not to the level where he's probably seen as a rising star in the coaching ranks anymore.
32. Bob Huggins, West Virginia (18-49-125-68-15): Ah, Huggy Bear. After a couple of mediocre seasons, Huggins has reinvented West Virginia with a pressure defensive style that's completely unlike what he's done in the past. It's worked, and West Virginia is back in the top 25. Maybe this is the start of a new era for Huggins, or maybe it's a one year aberration. More important is the reputation that he carries. You can argue about how much that's deserved, but it doesn't change its existence.
31. Johnny Jones, LSU (180-165-100-58-38): If you had a coach who could land the #1 high school recruit in the country, that would be a plus, right? Especially one who isn't local and especially when you're still rebuilding your program. Jones did just that by landing Ben Simmons of Australia (by way of Monteverde Academy) in next year's class. After 11 years at North Texas (and one prior at Memphis), Jones is not a rookie. He comes with a reputation as a recruiter, dating back to his time as an assistant on Dale Brown's staff at Memphis when the team had Shaq and Chris Jackson. It's not like LSU hasn't recruited well even in recent years, but Jones has a great chance to build his program in a wide-open-after-Kentucky SEC.
30. Jamie Dixon, Pitt (): Dixon's teams are usually efficiency and regular season darlings without much success in the NCAA tournament. Pitt won over two-thirds of their Big East games under Dixon, but have played into the tournament's second weekend just three times in a dozen seasons, and not once this decade. 2011 seemed like the last best hope for Pitt to break through under Dixon, and now four years removed from that, Pitt hasn't contended since. My impression is that we're a few years away from Dixon hopping somewhere else. There's only so long you can be good but not great.
29. Kevin Ollie, UConn (47-8-58): Ollie won a National Championship. No coach with one of those will rank nearly as low on this list because none are as much a coaching novice as Ollie. He had two years on the bench with UConn before Jim Calhoun's retirement and now two and a half years running the program. Banners hang forever unless then NCAA makes you take them down, so Ollie deserves a ton of credit for what the Huskies did last spring, but without that run (and without Calhoun recruit Shabazz Napier), Ollie is nowhere near the top. Six games are still six games.
28. Larry Krystkowiak, Utah (297-108-42-7): Look at the kenpom trend! Oh my. The New Coach K has been around the world, playing in the NBA and overseas, serving as a DI and NBA assistant, and then as head coach for Montana and the Bucks before coming to Salt Lake City. He also joins The Old Coach K in the National Polish-American Sports Hall of Fame. Uncanny! Anyway, this is about as high on the list as you can go with only one NCAA tournament win (in 2006 at Montana). His recruiting looks suspect, too, but I'm ready to push All In if Utah has another good year next year without Delon Wright.
27. Josh Pastner, Memphis (90-9-33-37-90): Pastner famously had an 0-13 record against top 25 teams at one point in his career early last year, which of course meant that Pastner couldn't coach. Only then he won five of those games last season and Memphis themselves stayed in the top 25 wire-to-wire which must have meant that those coaches were all even worse (hint: no). But while the criticism is probably too strident, he's had plenty of talent in his six years without yet having much to show for it. Some of those guys have been headaches (Kuran Iverson, Jelan Kendrick) and some wasn't quite as good as the advanced hype (Will Barton, Joe Jackson). Pastner's lack of experience keeps him low. Five years from now he could be #1 on the list.
26. Mike Brey, Notre Dame (11-37-37-99-14): Never trust a basketball coach in a turtle neck. It's my longstanding impression that if you can't by yourself a decent suit and make yourself look presentable, you're not a great coach. Call this the Brey test. Not to be confused by the Enfield test, where the attractiveness of your wife serves as a proxy for your recruiting ability. Any head basketball coach that can't outkick his coverage belongs in the mid-majors. Uh, anyway, Brey made a Sweet 16 once, way back in 2003. He's a terrific offensive coach. 2015 is his 7th team in 14 years to be in top 11 of adjusted efficiency. His defenses are terrible, never having rim protectors or rebounders and never applying much pressure to the opposition. That's a ceiling.
37. Tim Miles, Nebraska (78-95-130-44-104): Miles has spent a long career going from place to place - five stops in 20 years as a head coach ranging from the NAIA up to Nebraska. He's got a lively social media presence on twitter, and in just two plus years in Lincoln he's done a lot to bring #nebrasketball into the lexicon of college hoops junkies. He's never won an NCAA tournament game, but his teams have shown continued improvement everywhere he's coached.
36. Jim Boeheim, Syracuse (15-5-10-16-70): There's no one in college basketball, not even his holiness down in Durham, who grates as much as Boeheim. It's amazing that if you google "Jim Boeheim whine", you get over twenty year's worth of links right on the first page or two. He's 70, so you might think that would have worn off by now, but nah uh. If you hire Boeheim, you're getting a "legend", but not a Coach K/Dean Smith type of legend. Boeheim is a winner, but he's still just a basketball coach.
35. Jim Larranaga, Miami (24-50-14-69-63): Everyone remembers the magical run nine years ago when Larranaga led George Mason to the final four, beating heavyweights and marking the first time in over 25 years that a "mid-major" team made it to the season's last weekend. What's more impressive to me is how consistently his teams at Mason won. In fourteen seasons as the program's head coach, only his first saw them finish under .500 in the conference. Then in 2013, in his second year at Miami, the Hurricanes swept the ACC regular season and tournament championships. And that's at a program where "also-ran" would be generous. After losing everyone from that team, he's already rebuilt Miami into a tournament contender again. The one negative is that he's 65. That's really too old for consideration near the top except for the giants of the game.
34. Andy Enfield, USC (170-93-163-155): Enfield's claim to fame is two wins in March, a pretty wife and a lot of dunks. That's sizzle. His next move is to show some substance. It's a win now world so Enfield becomes something of a forgotten man. We look at USC still loitering at the bottom of the Pac-12 and think "he hasn't done anything there yet", only to be reminded that this is year two and sometimes rebuilding doesn't happen overnight, regardless of how good you are. There's little question that Enfield was a good hire for USC precisely because that's a program that needs the sizzle, but at the highest levels, you'd have to wait and see, right?
33. Chris Mack, Xavier (39-48-77-59-22): I get the sense that Mack's star has probably fallen a little bit. Four years ago his team had won back to back A-10 regular season titles, three NCAA tournament games in two years and fifty games overall. The past two years the Musketeers had a tournament miss and then a trip to Dayton for the First Four (where they lost). Xavier is in the Big East now and has a sizeable fanbase. It's a program that expects to win. Mack has generally done a fine job of that, but not to the level where he's probably seen as a rising star in the coaching ranks anymore.
32. Bob Huggins, West Virginia (18-49-125-68-15): Ah, Huggy Bear. After a couple of mediocre seasons, Huggins has reinvented West Virginia with a pressure defensive style that's completely unlike what he's done in the past. It's worked, and West Virginia is back in the top 25. Maybe this is the start of a new era for Huggins, or maybe it's a one year aberration. More important is the reputation that he carries. You can argue about how much that's deserved, but it doesn't change its existence.
31. Johnny Jones, LSU (180-165-100-58-38): If you had a coach who could land the #1 high school recruit in the country, that would be a plus, right? Especially one who isn't local and especially when you're still rebuilding your program. Jones did just that by landing Ben Simmons of Australia (by way of Monteverde Academy) in next year's class. After 11 years at North Texas (and one prior at Memphis), Jones is not a rookie. He comes with a reputation as a recruiter, dating back to his time as an assistant on Dale Brown's staff at Memphis when the team had Shaq and Chris Jackson. It's not like LSU hasn't recruited well even in recent years, but Jones has a great chance to build his program in a wide-open-after-Kentucky SEC.
30. Jamie Dixon, Pitt (): Dixon's teams are usually efficiency and regular season darlings without much success in the NCAA tournament. Pitt won over two-thirds of their Big East games under Dixon, but have played into the tournament's second weekend just three times in a dozen seasons, and not once this decade. 2011 seemed like the last best hope for Pitt to break through under Dixon, and now four years removed from that, Pitt hasn't contended since. My impression is that we're a few years away from Dixon hopping somewhere else. There's only so long you can be good but not great.
29. Kevin Ollie, UConn (47-8-58): Ollie won a National Championship. No coach with one of those will rank nearly as low on this list because none are as much a coaching novice as Ollie. He had two years on the bench with UConn before Jim Calhoun's retirement and now two and a half years running the program. Banners hang forever unless then NCAA makes you take them down, so Ollie deserves a ton of credit for what the Huskies did last spring, but without that run (and without Calhoun recruit Shabazz Napier), Ollie is nowhere near the top. Six games are still six games.
28. Larry Krystkowiak, Utah (297-108-42-7): Look at the kenpom trend! Oh my. The New Coach K has been around the world, playing in the NBA and overseas, serving as a DI and NBA assistant, and then as head coach for Montana and the Bucks before coming to Salt Lake City. He also joins The Old Coach K in the National Polish-American Sports Hall of Fame. Uncanny! Anyway, this is about as high on the list as you can go with only one NCAA tournament win (in 2006 at Montana). His recruiting looks suspect, too, but I'm ready to push All In if Utah has another good year next year without Delon Wright.
27. Josh Pastner, Memphis (90-9-33-37-90): Pastner famously had an 0-13 record against top 25 teams at one point in his career early last year, which of course meant that Pastner couldn't coach. Only then he won five of those games last season and Memphis themselves stayed in the top 25 wire-to-wire which must have meant that those coaches were all even worse (hint: no). But while the criticism is probably too strident, he's had plenty of talent in his six years without yet having much to show for it. Some of those guys have been headaches (Kuran Iverson, Jelan Kendrick) and some wasn't quite as good as the advanced hype (Will Barton, Joe Jackson). Pastner's lack of experience keeps him low. Five years from now he could be #1 on the list.
26. Mike Brey, Notre Dame (11-37-37-99-14): Never trust a basketball coach in a turtle neck. It's my longstanding impression that if you can't by yourself a decent suit and make yourself look presentable, you're not a great coach. Call this the Brey test. Not to be confused by the Enfield test, where the attractiveness of your wife serves as a proxy for your recruiting ability. Any head basketball coach that can't outkick his coverage belongs in the mid-majors. Uh, anyway, Brey made a Sweet 16 once, way back in 2003. He's a terrific offensive coach. 2015 is his 7th team in 14 years to be in top 11 of adjusted efficiency. His defenses are terrible, never having rim protectors or rebounders and never applying much pressure to the opposition. That's a ceiling.
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