Offensively, MD has dropped from 92nd in adjusted offensive efficiency last year to 126th this season. A breakdown first of the yearly performance of each of the returning players:
| 2013-14 | |||
| PLAYER | ORTG | POSS% | TOTAL ORTG |
| WELLS | 105.8 | 25.10% | 1.066 |
| FAUST | 102.3 | 20.60% | |
| MITCHELL | 101.3 | 23.50% | |
| ALLEN | 104.4 | 23.90% | |
| LAYMAN | 119.2 | 17.20% | |
| CLEARE | 101.3 | 13.70% | |
| 2012-13 | |||
| PLAYER | ORTG | POSS% | TOTAL ORTG |
| WELLS | 105.2 | 24.80% | 1.008 |
| FAUST | 99.7 | 21.90% | |
| MITCHELL | 93.8 | 22.30% | |
| ALLEN | 96.8 | 21.40% | |
| LAYMAN | 102.2 | 15.60% | |
| CLEARE | 107.7 | 15.40% | |
So there is some pretty clear improvement. The group was barely above 1.00 ppp Mendoza Line, and now, using more total possessions, the efficiency has increased. Certainly we have to take into account the nationwide increase in scoring prowess I mentioned early, but even then, just keeping pace with "inflation" would have put the returnees at about 1.04 ppp.
The careful reader can see where this is going by now. If the team is worse, but the holdovers are better, the returnees must be worse than the guys they replaced, probably by quite a bit. The conventional wisdom coming into the year was that the lost offensive productivity would be fairly easy to replace. Len was good, but helped more defensively than offensively, Aronhalt was effective in limited situations as a catch and shoot guy off the bench but not close to a lead option, Padgett was subpar, and Pe'shon Howard, the teams supposed engine at PG was downright terrible for most of last year. So let's see:
| 2012-13 | |||
| PLAYER | ORTG | POSS% | TOTAL ORTG |
| LEN | 112.7 | 22.80% | 1.054 |
| PADGETT | 94.1 | 17.80% | |
| ARONHALT | 112.8 | 18.10% | |
| HOWARD | 94.1 | 13.80% | |
| 2013-14 | |||
| PLAYER | ORTG | POSS% | TOTAL ORTG |
| GRAHAM | 105.8 | 12.00% | 0.96 |
| DODD | 67.8 | 12.60% | |
| RAM | 65.7 | 10.00% | |
| PETERS | 89 | 22.50% | |
| SMOT | 106 | 22.00% | |
While Smot has been good, and takes a lot of undeserved criticism (at least offensively), he didn't improve enough in his year off, nor does he really come close to replacing the allegedly inconsistent Alex Len. More disturbingly, Roddy Peters, despite spectacular plays throughout the year, has been an even bigger anchor to the offense than was Howard. There's no question that Peters has great potential, but he doesn't yet take great care of the ball and has made an absurd one 3PFG this season.
Defensively, the analysis is much more qualitative. Here it's clear from watching the game that Alex Len's shot blocking, height, and quickness at the 5 are sorely missed. The hope would have been that while no one could replace Len, the newcomers - particularly Damonte Dodd and John Graham - would have been a huge improvement over Padge to counterbalance that. While that's been true, Smot getting the lion's share of minutes at the four and being an absolute traffic cone on defense everywhere on the phone has been terribly disappointing. Last year's Maryland defense wasn't aggressive at all, but didn't allow opponents to make shots, this year's, while not terrible and certainly a bit more likely to force a turnover, has done a terrible job at preventing shots from going in.
In the end, while we'd have liked to have seen the old guys make The Leap a bit more, it's tough to pinpoint any one disappointment there. My opinion is that Layman needs to be more involved in the offense behind streaky catch and shoot play, Nick Faust needs to play within himself as he has more often in recent weeks, and that Wells simply needs to improve a bit more given his skills. It sounds simple - I know it's not, but here's hoping the team can work towards it the next few weeks.
