Earlier we looked at which teams in the Big Ten have the most talent on paper according to recruiting rankings. The flip side is how much experience each team has. Here's a look at how similar the 2014-15 model B1G teams will look to this year's squads.
14. Indiana (44.9%) - The natives are getting restless in Bloomington after a 17-15 disaster this season. Noah Vonleh (NBA), Will Sheehey and Evan Gordon (graduation) all depart. One of the issues for the Hoosiers this season is that they were an exceedingly young team, and barring a transfer, Yogi Ferrell and Hanner Perea, both juniors, will be next year's only upperclassmen.
13. Ohio State (48.9%) - Aaron Craft finally graduates along with Lenzelle Smith, and LaQuinton Ross forfeits a year of eligibility to turn pro. Thad Matta is never known for this rotation depth so even losing three key players leaves the Bucks scrambling. Luckily, almost everyone left on the roster was a highly rated prospect, and four seniors will return, all of whom played big minutes. Ohio State last lost three starters in 2008-2009, and while it wasn't a vintage year, the Buckeyes still tied for fourth in the Big Ten and made the tournament.
12. Michigan (49.9%) - The best case scenario for the Wolverines was losing one of Nick Stauskas or Glenn Robinson III to the NBA plus graduating senior Jordan Morgan. Instead they lose both, Jon Horford announced his intent to transfer, and Mitch McGary still may go pro, making him the fifth player in two years to leave Michigan early for the NBA. That speaks to the talent that is now coming through Ann Arbor, but they'll have just two upperclassmen next season because of that. Barring an incoming transfer, the Wolverines won't have a single senior on the roster.
11. Purdue (52.4%) - Matt Painter's team had another disappointing season at 15-17, and that was with four seniors playing minutes. The big blow was the transfer of sophomore Ronnie Johnson out of the program. AJ Hammons decided to forgo the draft to return, Matt Painter used a deep rotation this year and there's talent available, but it'll be young talent, making it hard to see the Boilers move up the standings too much.
10. Rutgers (52.8%) - The season was so bad for Rutgers that this may be one of those instances where it's best to only retain a small portion of the existing roster. Eddie Jordan has his work cut out for him. Three starters leave, though the good news is that the two returnees – Myles Mack and Kadeem Jack – were the two legitimate building blocks on the roster.
9. Michigan State (59.3%) - The Spartans knew that Adriean Payne and Keith Appling would graduate, and they had to assume that Gary Harris wouldn't be back in East Lansing next year. Given that, things went as well as could be expected, with Branden Dawson coming back alongside many complimentary players. Unlike rivals Michigan or Ohio State, the Spartans had a well-developed bench next year, due in no smart part to a multitude of injuries to starters. Nine rotation players return for the Spartans next season.
8. Minnesota (63.2%) - After winning the NIT, Minnesota will have enough back that they can reasonably hope to move up in the standings next season. Austin Hollins graduates, but no-relation Andre Hollins will lead a group of four returning starters, though perhaps with one of them being a walk-on the Golden Gophers are still in the stage of building the program where talent upgrades are more important than roster consistency.
7. Northwestern (69.3%) - It's a new era in Evanston, one that they hope will lead them to their first ever NCAA Tournament appearance. The Wildcats had one of the biggest splits in efficiency (309 offensive/14 defensive) you'll see, and despite a stunning win at Wisconsin early in the year, Chris Collins first team wasn't even as competitive as Bill Carmody's final teams. Only six scholarship players return so the team will have to rely on at least a few freshmen in 2014-15.
6. Iowa (69.9%) - Iowa returned nearly everyone this year, and while they made their first NCAA appearance in eight years, a late slide and a First Four exit soured things. Roy Devyn Marble, the teams offensive centerpiece (29.6 shot%) moves on, as do two other key contributors. Iowa had the deepest rotation in the B1G this year so it's unlikely that even with the departures many newcomers will be counted on to assume big roles.
5. Penn State (70.7%) - The good news for Pat Chambers is that he'll not have to start over. The bad news is that, like Rutgers, starting over may be the best thing. The Nittany Lions weren't truly abymsal, scoring three upsets over the top half of the league, but the one loss is a big one. Tim Frazier was an outstanding two-way, all-around player. The Lions are a veteran team next year, whch indicates that the time might be now for them to compete, but the talent on hand doesn't look strong enough. A top 10 finish would be an accomplishment.
4. Maryland (71.8%) - The Terps graduated no scholarship seniors and expected everyone back. Three transfers later, the Terps dropped from first to fourth on this list, but none of the three transfers were expected to start next season. Nick Faust would have figured into the rotation as a senior, but Shaq Cleare and Roddy Peters were likely to be deep reserves on a team using its full complement of scholarships finally. Dez Wells smartly decided to return and a deep recruiting haul has Maryland's sight set on the top of the B1G.
3. Illinois (74.5%) - Notice how high Illinois ranks on this list and the one below for talent on paper. Jon Groce's club barely made the NIT last year, but don't be surprised if they make noise in the B1G this year. Two senior starters at forward depart – Joseph Bertrand and Jon Ekey – but three starters, all rising seniors are back, led by a very talented group of underclassmen.
2. Nebraska (78.2%) - On paper, the Cornhuskers weren't the most talented team, but Tim Miles got the most out of them, and given what returns, back-to-back trips to the NCAA Tournament after a 15 year drought is in play. Ray Gellegos's shooting will be missed, but an excellent JR class of Terran Petteway, Shavon Shields and Walter Pitchford could be setting up the Huskers for a basketball golden age.
1. Wisconsin (82.0%) - Wisconsin could start the season at #1, and certainly should be the unanimous choice to win the B1G next year. Of the players on their tournament roster, Ben Brust (graduation) will be the only one not returning next year. That's a loss, but in the modern age of college basketball, you can't hope for much less of a body blow, especially when the Badgers have at least two players (Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker) with legitimate NBA hopes.
