Sunday, May 31, 2015

Maryland's Got Talent

Things are falling into place.  Melo Trimble and Jake Layman passed on the NBA Draft to come back.  Robert Carter Jr. continues to lurk as an infusion of talent on the interior as soon as he's eligible next fall.  Diamond Stone spurned his hometown Badgers to join the Terps.  Rasheed Sulaimon is in, too.  He brings some questions after his dismissal from Duke last year, but there's no question that he's talented.

Talent is a loaded word.  Sometimes it means how many stars a recruit was coming into college, which is often a good proxy, but there are many counterexamples.  Other times it applies to certain skills.  A top shooter or scorer will get the nod as talented, but great defenders like Tony Allen or great rebounders like Dennis Rodman get called role players.  Again, fair to some extent, but it doesn't tell the full story.

I only add that digression because I'm going to make a bold claim -- next year's roster may be the most talented in school history, either one through five or one through ten.  To make that claim we need to look at the past contenders for that title.  Many are obvious, but the metric I'm going to use is NBA games played.  That means that for this exercise Steve Blake is "more talented" than Juan Dixon, which certainly wasn't the case here in the early 2000s, but nothing is perfect.

In broad strokes, the amount of NBA players on a college roster and the impact that they had at the pro level is a good view of the talent a team has.  Villanova was correctly a #1 seed last year (early exit be damned) over Arizona, but there's not much doubt which roster close followers of college basketball would say was more talented.  Ryan Arcidiacano might have shared the Big East Player of the Year award, but his NBA career arc is likely more Gerry McNamara than Kyle Lowry, as far as Big East point guards go.

So let's look at the ten most talented rosters in Maryland history, as judged by career NBA games played.

10) 1990 (1,596 games) - Gary Williams' first team wasn't lacking for talent.  The three leading scorers were Walt Williams (7th pick in 1992), Jerrod Mustaf (17th pick in 1990), and longtime NBA journeyman Tony Massenburg.  Evers Burns, another rotation player, would get a cup of coffee in the NBA.  Despite that roster, the Terps finished just 6-8 in the ACC and played in the NIT, but that was a vast improvement over the previous year's team that went 1-13 in the ACC with a similar roster under Bob Wade.












T-8) 1979 and 1980 (1,841 games) - Only two players from this team made it to the NBA, but both had long careers.  Albert King (10th overall) and Buck Williams (3rd overall) both went high in the draft in 1981.  Williams has a strong case for best pro career by a Terp, averaging a career double-double, and snagging Rookie of the Year and several All-Defensive Team honors over his 17 year career with the Nets, Trailblazers and Knicks.











7) 1975 (2,027 games) - While Tom McMillen and Len Elmore had graduated, this was another strong team in the Golden Age of Lefty Driesell, posting a 24-5 record and making the Elite Eight behind a tremendous backcourt of John Lucas and Brad Davis.  Both men would have long careers as NBA point guards, and hold the distinction of being the first four year stars for the Terps after the rule against freshman ineligibility was lifted in advance of Lucas' first season.

6) 2002 (2,038 games and counting) - The most famous team in school history, winners of its only basketball National Championship, checks in at just 6th on the list, though with Steve Blake still playing, this group will rise in the rankings.  Juan Dixon and Lonny Baxter had modest NBA careers considering their stellar, four-year careers in College Park, but coming out of college, most realized that their physical gifts lagged behind their skills.  Chris Wilcox did have those gifts, but his skills didn't catch up enough for him to be more than a useful NBA player over his eleven years in the league.

5) 1976 (2,040 games) - Lucas and Davis returned from the 1975 team, and the five leaders in minutes played all spent time in the NBA, including Steve Sheppard, Lawrence Boston and Mo Howard.  The team itself was a disappointment, though.  The 22-6 record wasn't as good as the year before, and despite spending eight consecutive weeks at #2 in the AP Poll, spent the postseason at home.  While the tournament had expanded to 32 a year prior to include at-large selections, each conference was still limited to two selections.  After 6th seeded Virginia surprisingly won the ACC Tournament, #8 North Carolina was selected as the league's at-large instead of #11 Maryland.











4) 1981 (2,075 games) - Two things emerge from this list - talented Lefty Driesell teams that disappointed on the court.  This was the same King/Williams squad from earlier in the list, adding eventual NBA pick Charles Pittman inside, that grabbed a #2 seed in 1980.  Despite a preseason #4 ranking in the AP Poll, the Terps sputtered to a 21-10 season before being crushed by Indiana in the second round of the NCAA Tournament as a #6 seed.











3) 2001 (2,177 games) - Add Terence Morris to the 2002 National Championship game and you've got the roster for this one.  Morris had a disappointing pro career compared to predictions earlier in his college career, playing just parts of three seasons with the Rockets and Magic.  Morris averaged over 15 per game his sophomore and junior seasons and was 1st-Team All ACC his sophomore year.  He was also 6-9 with perimeter skills, a rarer combination 15 years ago.  Despite that, Morris stayed four years, and had a down season statistically his senior year as the team made it's first Final Four.  He would drop from a projected high first round pick to a second round guy and most of his best pro success came in Europe.

2) 1974 (2,347 games) - Tom McMillen, Len Elmore, John Lucas,  The Greatest Game Ever Played (fittingly, a Terps loss).  Finishing the year ranked in the top 5 in the country but at home for the postseason because only one team per conference could make the NCAA Tournament and the team declined an NIT bid, having won that tournament two years ago with the same group.  Maryland fans are among the best at paying the What If? game, and while alternate worlds where Len Bias lives and Moses Malone makes it to campus are prominently featured, perhaps none is talked about more than the idea of at-large bids in the early 1970s.  The 1972 and 1974 team went a combined 46-10 those two years, playing in the ACC, but never got the chance to play for a National Championship.

1) 1973 (2,403 games): This was the 1974 team plus Jim O'Brien, a Small Forward who played 58 games in the ABA.  O'Brien was actually the second leading scorer for the team, ahead of Lucas and Elmore.  This team was 20 minutes from a Final Four before eventually falling to Providence.  Close but no cigar.

Monday, May 18, 2015

To the Draft

The Coaching Carousel is still spinning with Billy Donovan moving from his longtime home at Florida to new challenges with the Oklahoma City Thunder, and the transfer recruiting market continues on, but one facet of college basketball's hot stove league wrapped up at the end of last month as the deadline to declare for the NBA Draft passed.

The off season seemed to start with almost every key underclassmen declaring that they'd be going pro.  Duke's three and Kentucky's seven led the way early, and upper lottery picks D'Angelo Russell and Stanley Johnson confirmed the obvious late in the cycle.  The annual WTF entries were present, too.  Former Maryland reserve Ashton Pankey got a degree and had a fine season for MAAC Champ Manhattan this year, his fifth in college, and decided to leave a year of eligibility on the table to pursue an NBA career.  Pankey has no chance of being drafted, of course, but with former teammates Jordan Williams and Terrell Stoglin declaring early in the past few years, Gary Williams' last team somehow has the distinction of having three early entries on the roster.  Truth is indeed stranger than fiction.

Anyway, 48 guys put their name on the list, the third highest total of the nine years we've had the One and Done rule.

2007
2008
2009
2010
45
48
2013
2014
2015
32
38
39
50
44
49
46
45
48


Things look a little "worse" (for a college basketball fan) when you concentrate on only the major conference players.  The mid-majors (and below) have some first round talent among this year's crop of early entrants like Cameron Payne of Murray State and Georgia State's RJ Hunter, who created this year's March Madness Moment, but the lion's share of NBA Draft talent is obviously in the Power 6. 36 power conference players declared early, tied for the most in the last nine years.

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
23
26
26
32
33
36
30
36
36

Who was hurt most?  The SEC had a staggering 13 players declare early.  We all know about Kentucky's 7 players, but Arkansas, LSU  and even lowly Florida had a pair as well.  Fringe prospects like Tyler Ulis and Dorian Finney-Smith are the best of the bunch returning to school next season.

ACC
Pac-12
SEC
Big Ten
Big XII
Big East
11
5
13
4
3
0

The Big East didn't have a single player leave early.  It was a senior laden conference last year, with only D'vauntes Smith-Rivera of Georgetown and Providence's Kris Dunn seriously considering throwing their names into the ring.  There's a lot of talk about what the future holds for the newly configured Big East and so it will be interesting to see whether the lack of high end talent continues.  The conference landed only two of the top 45 players in the 2015 recruiting class.

One trend emerges when you look at the entire nine years of data concerns the Big Ten.  The conference has been struck by far fewer early entries than peer conferences at just 3 a year, while other power conferences average 5.5 a year.  It might not sound like a huge difference, but imagine how different the perception of the B1G would be heading into next season if Melo Trimble and Caris LeVert decided to enter their names into the draft.  Two players won't kill a league, but it can go a long way to dropping it in from first to third in the mythical league power rankings the following winter.