Saturday, July 18, 2015

Terps Schedule Smart

Three years ago Maryland wound up in the NIT at 22-12.  Much like everything else, it happened for a number of reasons (like an 8-10 ACC record), but the team was widely considered off the bubble by Selection Sunday after a strong ACC performance in large part due to a weak RPI driven down by a horrendous non-conference Strength of Schedule - 299th in the nation.  That's often a death knell for a power conference bubble team and seed deflater to those in the field.

Ten guarantee games will crush a team's SOS, but Mark Turgeon and staff deserve a ton of credit for recognizing and addressing that over the past couple of years, putting together stronger schedules that ranked 113th and 82nd overall.  The strategy looks to have been a blend of more premier opponents, mid-majors and stronger low-majors replacing games against the dregs of Division I, and some good scheduling fortune, like Ohio State and Virginia replacing Northwestern in the ACC-B1G challenge. The 2015 non-conference schedule was released earlier this week, and this looks like the best one yet.

The three premier games are @ North Carolina, UConn (Jimmy V Classic), and Georgetown.  All three should be improved over last year with North Carolina a national contender and the other two possibly contending for top 20 rankings.  The Cancun Challenge field isn't sexy, but all three of Illinois State, TCU, and Rhode Island all ranked in the kenpom top 75.  All told, only a home game against Marshall (11-21) is against a team with a sub-.500 record last year:

Team W L
North Carolina 26 12
Georgetown 22 11
Uconn 20 15
Illinois State 22 13
TCU 18 15
UMES 18 15
Princeton 16 14
Marshall 11 21
St Francis (NY) 23 12
Mount St. Mary's 15 15
Cleveland State 19 15
Rider 21 12

231 170
Overall SOS
0.5760598504

That NC SOS would have been 16th in the country last year.  Five of the twelve games being played away from home, including Princeton at Royal Farms Arena in Baltimore, help as well.  The Terps look like a national power on the court next year, and their schedule looks to set them up to be seeded as such even if they lose a game or two more than expected.

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