We're now two months removed from the 2015 NBA Draft. If this were the NFL, that would be enough time for Mel Kiper and Todd McShay to be on version 13 of their 2016 mocks by now, but since the college hoops off-season is much quieter than the NFL version, you have to hunt a little bit more for previews of the next draft. Luckily the always excellent Draft Express has a full mock posted already.
It's all still very early since we haven't seen a game in five months but because we're coming down the stretch of the sad months between Madness (March and Midnight), I started to look at their mock and think a little about who might be the biggest successes in the draft. As always I looked to the unparalleled kenpom, not just for advanced statistics for some of the top returning college players, but also his season similarity scores to help evaluate players' pro prospects. It's far from an exact science, especially with just the 5 most comparable players listed on each page, but it gives us some quality insight when we see players with lots of NBA comps and/or very few similar players.
The rules are simple - the higher the number, the closer the match. Better players will not only have better quality comps, but their top comps will have lower scores. Average players are a dime a dozen, but truly outstanding players are unique.
#30: Malik Pope, San Diego State [Similar: '15 Isaac Copeland (898), '15 Marvin Clark (896), '09 Lance Goulbourne (878), '14 Austin Nichols (878), '13 Sheldon Jeter (875)] - Pope is the rare 6-10 freshman with touch from the outside, canning 20 threes in his first season despite playing only 16 minutes a game in Mountain West play. Pope was considered a potential draft pick last year, but needs to improve his frame to rebound and score more effectively inside.
#29: Tim Quarterman, LSU [Similar: '15 Troy Caupain (923), '15 Scoochie Smith (912), '11 Anthony Marshall (907), '11 Brandyn Curry (906), '13 Royce O'Neale (901)] - Quarterman went from a bit player as a freshman to a focal point for an LSU team that featured two draft picks in Jarell Martin and Jordan Mickey. Quarterman's size and point guard skills have him on the radar, but his lack of shooting keeps him low on the board, and with middling comparables.
#28: Marcus Lee, Kentucky [Similar: '11 Wendell Lewis (841), '14 Matt Costello (839), '13 Gabriel Olaseni (834), '11 D.J. Stephens (829), '13 Jon Horford (827)] - Lee is all potential at this point after spending a couple years behind Karl-Anthony Towns, Willie Cauley-Stein, and Julius Randle. The comparables aren't flattering, but that's to be expected with his lack of run as an underclassman. It seems unlikely that Lee will get drafted at this spot. If he puts that 7'3" wingspan to good use, he'll go much higher; otherwise, he'll spend a fourth year in Lexington.
#27: Taurean Prince, Baylor [Similar: '15 Dorian Finney-Smith (909), '10 Justin Harper (887), '13 Marshawn Powell (874), '13 Jamil Wilson (871), '13 Cleanthony Early (866)] - Prince has comparables to 2014 second round pick Early and fellow 2016 prospect Finney-Smith. Prince profiles well as the type of "3 and D" wing currently en vogue in the NBA. A long, 6-7 athlete, Prince defends well and improved to over 40% from three last year. Prince also shot a career low 64% from the charity stripe, much lower than would be expected for a sharpshooter, so it remains to be seen whether that shooting prowess will hold up.
#26: Chinanu Onuaku, Louisville [Similar: '11 Fab Melo (854), '12 Rakeem Christmas (842), '11 Baye Moussa Keita (836), '09 Frank Ben-Eze (832), '14 Kenneth Lowe (829)] - It's clear Onuaku should be at Syracuse. His brother Arinze starred there several years ago, and his top three comparables are all Orangemen. But of those three, only Melo wound up close to an NBA prospect, and he played only six games for the Celtics after being a first round pick. This Onuaku showed defensive presence, but is probably best described as the proverbial project. Some of those lottery tickets will hit, and Onuaku should at least beat out Mangok Mathiang at the 5 for Louisville, which will give him a chance to demonstrate what his payoff is likely to be at the next level.
#25: Kennedy Meeks, North Carolina [Similar: '13 Jerrell Wright (926), '11 Tim Williams (916), '14 Brice Johnson (909), '13 Alex Len (903), '15 Jalen Reynolds (902)] - Meeks had a fine second season. After dropping a significant amount of weight in the offseason, Meeks kept his efficiency numbers stable while playing six more minutes a game for a deep UNC frontcourt. Alex Len was a top five pick after his sophomore season, but at 7-0 Len is a different animal, as is Brice Johnson, though all three are high-quality players. UNC is a balanced team expected to contend nationally, so it remains to be seen if Meeks can distinguish himself this season.
#24: Jake Layman, Maryland [Similar: '12 E.J. Singler (915), '15 Michael Qualls (911), '11 Kris Joseph (909), '12 Christian Watford (907), '12 Hollis Thompson (906)] - Layman's combination of size, athleticism, and shooting can make scouts salivate. His comps include Thompson, a regular for the woeful 76ers the past two seasons, and Joseph, who had a cup of coffee after being drafted. Layman struggled in the last few weeks of the season, but showed an increased willingness and ability to drive to the basket and do more offensively than pick his spots to snipe from the outside. He also held his own on the boards against stronger interior players after moving down a spot to mostly play the four. His skills aren't in doubt, but refining them in his last season could make him a no-brainer first round selection.
#23: Justin Jackson, North Carolina [Similar: '11 Jeremy Lamb (899), '13 Sam Dekker (893), '13 Georges Niang (882), '09 Matt Gatens (878), '14 Zach LaVine (877)] - Jackson scored well as a freshman for the Tar Heels last year and improved his shooting late in the season, knocking down 11 of 23 threes in postseason play. Jackson's most similar players are an excellent list with three NBA players and Wooden Award contender Niang. Jackson has great size and length, and when coupled with his basketball instincts, he could shoot up the draft board. The goals for his second season will be to get his body more NBA-ready and show more consistency with his outside shooting.
#22: Domantas Sabonis, Gonzaga [Similar: '11 Kourtney Roberson (841), '15 Jakob Poeltl (837), '13 Brandon Ashley (835), '11 Dartaye Ruffin (834), '13 Perry Ellis (826)] - Sabonis is the son of the best NBA player who never was, Lithuanian legend Arvydas Sabonis. This Sabonis was a key reserve on one of the best front lines in the nation last year, scoring effectively inside and contending with the likes of Rico Gathers and Karl-Anthony Towns for the title of best two-way rebounder in college basketball. Sabonis' comps have lower scores than anyone else on the list, underscoring his uniqueness. Despite being 6-10 he was no rim protector at all, blocking only 11 shots in 38 games.
#21: Nigel Hayes, Wisconsin [Similar: '14 Perry Ellis (876), '15 Josh Hart (864), '10 Marcus Morris (860), '14 Sam Dekker (858), '14 Jerami Grant (852)] - Hayes was a somewhat forgotten third man at times on last year's excellent Badgers team, taking a back seat to Wooden Award winner Frank Kaminsky and JR NBA prospect Sam Dekker, but Hayes was crucial to their success. A versatile scorer, the 6-8 Hayes went from not attempting a three point his freshman season to taking 101 last year, making 40. Hayes needs to prove that he isn't an NBA tweener, too small to play the "4" and not athletic enough for the "3". Only just an average rebounder, and not a shot-blocking threat, Hayes has those areas to address if he wants to be able to slide inside in the NBA. His comparable list is eclectic, but strong, with the latter three were all drafted early out of college.
#20: Troy Williams, Indiana [Similar: '13 Seth Tuttle (904), '11 Elias Harris (897), '11 Ian Hummer (896), '15 Jarell Martin (888), '11 Julian Boyd (886)] - Troy Williams is a man who can dunk the ball. He will dunk it, and when he does, it will not rim out. Williams can get to the basket and score as well as any wing in the country and rebounds like a demon for a 6-7 player, but needs to expand his game to the outside and make more than six threes.
#19: Caris LeVert, Michigan [Similar: '12 Mark Lyons (884), '09 Matt Janning (884), '10 Marcus Relphorde (878), '14 Matt Carlino (877), '12 Eric Mosley (876)] - The athletic Canadian lost much of last year to an injury and his return to Ann Arbor was one of the bigger surprises of draft season. His relative lack of minutes last year make his comp list virtually worthless. LeVert scores, rebounds and makes plays as a versatile backcourt player. This is the same slot that another versatile senior guard, Jerami Grant, went last year. If LeVert has the same impact for Michigan that Grant had for Notre Dame, this projection will hit.
#17 Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk, Kansas [Similar: '15 Robbie Berwick (907), '09 Deividas Dulkys (895), '15 Corey Henderson (888), '13 Josh Fortune (886), '12 T.J. Sapp (886)] - The 6-8 Ukrainian has a reputation as a fine athlete and a talented shooter, but he showed very little of that in his first year in Lawrence. That's fine considering Mykhailiuk turned 18 only two months ago so failing to crack a talented Kansas rotation last year shouldn't have been a surprise. He'll have plenty of chances to shine in the next eight months. A spot on the wing is his to grab this year with Kelly Oubre leaving for the NBA.
#16: Damian Jones, Vanderbilt [Similar: '10 Samardo Samuels (898), '12 C.J. Leslie (894), '10 Robert Sacre (890), '14 Przemek Karnowski (876), '09 A.J. Ogilvy (872)] - Leslie and Samuels are most well known as former top 10 recruits whose NBA careers were essentially dead from the start. Jones was a much more unheralded recruit and stayed under the radar playing for a mediocre Vandy team the past two years. Jones has a rep as a long, 6-10 player who will live on shot-blocking and rebounding at the next level, but his work on the glass has been just OK (24th in the SEC in defensive rebounding). On the surface he seems like a less interesting big man prospect than a guy like AJ Hammons, but having just turned 20 in June he's a "young" junior with time to grow his game.
#14: Demetrius Jackson, Notre Dame [ Similar: '13 Kevin Pangos (899), '09 Steven Gray (877), '15 Monte Morris (875), '09 Austin Freeman (874), '15 Steve Vasturia (867)] - Jackson took a back seat to Jerami Grant on last year's Fighting Irish both as a team leader and ballhandler. With Grant having graduated and moved onto the NBA, now is the time for Jackson to prove his mettle. A lottery spot feels a bit high for a 6-1 guard who hasn't quite made his mark as a passer yet (15.4 assist rate), and the comparable list leans much more heavily towards "quality college guard" than "NBA starter". On the other hand, a highlight reel naming him the "Next Russell Westbrook" is a good addition to the resume.
#10: Jakob Poeltl, Utah [Similar: '15 Cliff Alexander (862), '10 Derrick Favors (853), '13 Sim Bhullar (847), '13 Steven Adams (838), '15 Domantas Sabonis (837)] - The big Austrian is an early lottery favorite because of a great combination of size (7-0), rebounding, shot blocking, and offensive acumen (9.1 ppg on 68% shooting), and while none of those five feel quite right as a comparison - except perhaps the international flavor - it's a good sign that the list includes two current NBAers (Adams and Favors), a guy who got a cup of coffee last year as a rookie (Bhullar) and another potential 2016 or 2017 pick (Sabonis). He'll need to show an expanded offensive game away from the basket both for his draft stock and for Utah after losing Delon Wright to graduation.
#8: Kris Dunn, Providence [Similar: '13 Derrick Marks (851), '09 Nick Calathes (843), '11 Darius Morris (841), '14 Maurice Watson (834), '11 D.J. Cooper (832)] - Dunn doesn't have a very close comparable group which speaks to the unique mix (and level) of talents. Calathes and Morris were both stat sheet stuffers in college and have bounced around the NBA, but both were far from the lottery. Dunn is an athlete, a finisher, a ball-hawking defender and a tremendous passing point guard, leading the NCAA with a 50.0 assist rate. His shooting needs to improve, but he took the first step in last year's breakout campaign.
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